detailed individual member results Thu Nov 14 22:39:22 UTC 2013 Detailed_results_19691231_190004_ncmes3_sims24_LIHUE041.txt >> file exists and has lines >> There are 0 data_rows and cmes/m_groups >> Summary: 0 xgroups: -1 simulations and 1 median simulation were submitted >> You have 1 loop(s) of 12, -1 simulations were leftover >> -1 of -1 simulations, and 1 median simulation were performed >> Using Carr Rot 2143 Carr Long 127 Startdate 2013-11-07 >> iswatag is 19691231_190004 (1st CME ID + seconds offset) ========================================================================= Earth (summary, more details follow below): Number_of_hits_Earth=24 Number_of_miss_Earth= 0 Earliest 2013-11-11T01:11 Average 2013-11-11T07:40 Latest 2013-11-11T17:18 Kp_90_min,Kp_90_avg,Kp_90_max = 2 2 3 Kp_135_min,Kp_135_avg,Kp_135_max= 3 3 4 Kp_180_min,Kp_180_avg,Kp_180_max= 4 4 5 Duration_min= 18.8 h Duration_avg= 28.5 h Duration_max= 43.3 h Standard deviation= 6.2 h mp_standoff_min= 5.7 Re mp_standoff_avg= 6.2 Re mp_standoff_max= 6.4 Re Standard deviation= 0.2 Re Earth results for median input parameters: Arrival time maxKp(90,135,180) Rmin(Re) Duration (hrs) 2013-11-11T07:02 3 4 4 6.1 35.5 http://iswax.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2013-11-07_ncmes3_sims24_LIHUE041/19691231_190004_ncmes3_sims24_LIHUE041_anim_tim-den.gif http://iswax.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2013-11-07_ncmes3_sims24_LIHUE041/19691231_190004_ncmes3_sims24_LIHUE041_anim_tim-vel.gif http://iswax.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2013-11-07_ncmes3_sims24_LIHUE041/19691231_190004_ncmes3_sims24_LIHUE041_Earth_Density.gif http://iswax.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2013-11-07_ncmes3_sims24_LIHUE041/19691231_190004_ncmes3_sims24_LIHUE041_Earth_Velocity.gif http://iswax.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2013-11-07_ncmes3_sims24_LIHUE041/19691231_190004_ncmes3_sims24_LIHUE041_Earth_Magnetic_field.gif http://iswax.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2013-11-07_ncmes3_sims24_LIHUE041/19691231_190004_ncmes3_sims24_LIHUE041_Earth_Temperature.gif ## Summary: BETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS. Ensemble modeling update on CME with ID 1969-12-31T19:00:04-CME-001 (see alert YYYYMMDD-AL-XXX). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Earth. Out of 24 ensemble members (see notes section), 24 indicate impact at Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach Earth between about 2013-11-11T01:11Z and 2013-11-11T17:18Z (average arrival 2013-11-11T07:40Z). The roughly estimated ensemble-based expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-5 (below minor to minor). Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event: http://iswax.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2013-11-07_ncmes3_sims24_LIHUE041/19691231_190004_ncmes3_sims24_LIHUE041_anim_tim-den.gif http://iswax.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2013-11-07_ncmes3_sims24_LIHUE041/19691231_190004_ncmes3_sims24_LIHUE041_anim_tim-vel.gif http://iswax.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2013-11-07_ncmes3_sims24_LIHUE041/19691231_190004_ncmes3_sims24_LIHUE041_arrival_Earth.gif http://iswax.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2013-11-07_ncmes3_sims24_LIHUE041/19691231_190004_ncmes3_sims24_LIHUE041_Earth_Density.gif http://iswax.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2013-11-07_ncmes3_sims24_LIHUE041/19691231_190004_ncmes3_sims24_LIHUE041_Earth_Velocity.gif http://iswax.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2013-11-07_ncmes3_sims24_LIHUE041/19691231_190004_ncmes3_sims24_LIHUE041_Earth_Magnetic_field.gif http://iswax.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2013-11-07_ncmes3_sims24_LIHUE041/19691231_190004_ncmes3_sims24_LIHUE041_Earth_Temperature.gif ## Notes: SWRC CME ensemble is obtained by building sets of initial CME parameters and by carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach will allow mapping of uncertainties in the initial CME parameters into statistical characterization of the CME impact at locations of interest. ========================================================================= Messenger: Number_of_hits_Mess= 7 Number_of_miss_Mess=17 Earliest 2013-11-08T16:55 Average 2013-11-08T19:21 Latest 2013-11-08T21:26 http://iswax.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2013-11-07_ncmes3_sims24_LIHUE041/19691231_190004_ncmes3_sims24_LIHUE041_anim_tim-den.gif http://iswax.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2013-11-07_ncmes3_sims24_LIHUE041/19691231_190004_ncmes3_sims24_LIHUE041_anim_tim-vel.gif http://iswax.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2013-11-07_ncmes3_sims24_LIHUE041/19691231_190004_ncmes3_sims24_LIHUE041_arrival_Mess.gif http://iswax.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2013-11-07_ncmes3_sims24_LIHUE041/19691231_190004_ncmes3_sims24_LIHUE041_Mess_Density.gif http://iswax.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2013-11-07_ncmes3_sims24_LIHUE041/19691231_190004_ncmes3_sims24_LIHUE041_Mess_Velocity.gif http://iswax.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2013-11-07_ncmes3_sims24_LIHUE041/19691231_190004_ncmes3_sims24_LIHUE041_Mess_Magnetic_field.gif http://iswax.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2013-11-07_ncmes3_sims24_LIHUE041/19691231_190004_ncmes3_sims24_LIHUE041_Mess_Temperature.gif Spitzer: Number_of_hits_Spitz= 0 Number_of_miss_Spitz=24 No CME simulation in this ensemble hit the Spitzer or the impact is weak STA: Number_of_hits_STA= 0 Number_of_miss_STA=24 No CME simulation in this ensemble hit the STA or the impact is weak STB: Number_of_hits_STB= 0 Number_of_miss_STB=24 No CME simulation in this ensemble hit the STB or the impact is weak Mars: Number_of_hits_Mars= 0 Number_of_miss_Mars=24 No CME simulation in this ensemble hit the Mars or the impact is weak ========================================================================= Earth table # time (21.5Rs) Lat Lon w/2 v flag Arrival time maxKp(90,135,180) Rmin(Re) Duration (hrs)