Detailed_results_20140107_182445_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE085.txt Fri Dec 12 16:52:39 UTC 2014 >> file 2014-01-07_1_CMEs_Control_File_Saved_2014-01-09T1633Z.txt exists and has 49 lines, 49 datalines >> There are 37 data_rows and 1 cmes/m_groups >> Summary: 37 xgroups: 36 simulations and 1 median simulation were submitted >> You have 3 loop(s) of 12, 0 simulations were leftover >> 36 of 36 simulations, and 1 median simulation were performed >> Using CR2145, Lon 040, and Startdate 2014-01-07 >> iswatag is 20140107_182445_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE085 (2. 1st CME ID + seconds offset) >> CME Spacecraft Start Image Date Start Image Type End Image Date End Image Type >> 2014-01-07T18:24:00-CME-001 (1) SOHO 2014-01-07T18:42:00Z C3 2014-01-07T19:06:00Z C3 >> STEREO-A 2014-01-07T18:39:24Z COR2 Beacon 2014-01-07T19:08:24Z COR2 Beacon >> The SWRC ensemble CME modeling is obtained by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest. Description of links: The first two links show the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median ensemble member, the third link is a histogram of predicted arrival times, and the last link is a stack plot showing the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled density, velocity, magnetic field, and temperature. =================================Earth=================================== Earth (summary, more details follow below): Number_of_hits_Earth= 0 Number_of_miss_Earth=36 Percentage_hits_Earth= 0% No CME simulation in this ensemble hit Earth or the impact is weak Earth results for median input parameters: Arrival time maxKp(90,135,180) Rmin(Re) Duration (hrs) None: CME did not hit Earth or impact is weak http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-07_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE085/20140107_182445_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE085_anim_tim-den.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-07_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE085/20140107_182445_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE085_anim_tim-vel.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-07_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE085/20140107_182445_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE085_Earth_stack.gif ===========================other locations=============================== MESSENGER: Number_of_hits_Mess= 0 Number_of_miss_Mess=36 Percentage_hits_Mess= 0% No CME simulation in this ensemble hit MESSENGER or the impact is weak Spitzer: Number_of_hits_Spitz= 0 Number_of_miss_Spitz=36 Percentage_hits_Spitz= 0% No CME simulation in this ensemble hit Spitzer or the impact is weak STEREO A: Number_of_hits_STA= 0 Number_of_miss_STA=36 Percentage_hits_STA= 0% No CME simulation in this ensemble hit STEREO A or the impact is weak STEREO B: Number_of_hits_STB= 0 Number_of_miss_STB=36 Percentage_hits_STB= 0% No CME simulation in this ensemble hit STEREO B or the impact is weak Mars: Number_of_hits_Mars= 6 Number_of_miss_Mars=30 Percentage_hits_Mars= 16.67% Earliest 2014-01-11T10:12 Average 2014-01-11T22:22 Latest 2014-01-12T11:28 http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-07_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE085/20140107_182445_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE085_anim_tim-den.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-07_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE085/20140107_182445_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE085_anim_tim-vel.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-07_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE085/20140107_182445_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE085_arrival_Mars.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-07_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE085/20140107_182445_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE085_Mars_stack.gif ======================================= ### Notification information (Mars) .... Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Mars. For 36 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach: - Mars between about 2014-01-11T10:12Z and 2014-01-12T11:28Z (average arrival 2014-01-11T22:22Z) for 16% of simulations. Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event: http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-07_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE085/20140107_182445_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE085_anim_tim-den.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-07_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE085/20140107_182445_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE085_arrival_Mars.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-07_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE085/20140107_182445_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE085_Mars_stack.gif ## Notes: SWRC CME ensemble is obtained by building sets of initial CME parameters and by carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach will allow mapping of uncertainties in the initial CME parameters into statistical characterization of the CME impact at locations of interest. Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled density, velocity, magnetic field, and temperature for all ensemble members. For the full details of the modeled event, please go here: http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-07_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE085/Detailed_results_20140107_182445_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE085.txt ### ========================================================================= Earth table (NCMES=1) # time (21.5Rs) Lat Lon w/2 v flag Arrival time maxKp(90,135,180) FP Rmin(Re) Duration (hrs) 1 2014-01-07T19:57 -31. 48. 54. 2153. C 2 2014-01-07T19:53 -32. 49. 56. 2344. C 3 2014-01-07T19:55 -32. 48. 62. 2200. C 4 2014-01-07T19:57 -31. 49. 55. 2143. C 5 2014-01-07T19:53 -32. 50. 59. 2324. C 6 2014-01-07T19:49 -31. 46. 57. 2398. C 7 2014-01-07T19:55 -32. 49. 55. 2188. C 8 2014-01-07T19:57 -32. 58. 62. 2170. C 9 2014-01-07T19:54 -33. 59. 56. 2295. C 10 2014-01-07T19:51 -32. 55. 55. 2349. C 11 2014-01-07T19:56 -33. 58. 59. 2206. C 12 2014-01-07T19:58 -30. 49. 58. 2132. C 13 2014-01-07T19:56 -31. 49. 60. 2178. C 14 2014-01-07T19:50 -30. 40. 68. 2400. H 15 2014-01-07T19:51 -29. 72. 59. 2348. H 16 2014-01-07T20:02 -29. 78. 55. 2041. H 17 2014-01-07T19:57 -31. 73. 58. 2162. H 18 2014-01-07T20:01 -32. 73. 56. 2084. H 19 2014-01-07T20:02 -30. 67. 60. 2131. H 20 2014-01-07T19:57 -31. 61. 59. 2222. H 21 2014-01-07T20:02 -32. 61. 59. 2095. H 22 2014-01-07T19:58 -30. 55. 55. 2175. H 23 2014-01-07T20:06 -30. 50. 58. 1997. H 24 2014-01-07T20:05 -29. 50. 62. 2030. H 25 2014-01-07T20:12 -29. 40. 55. 1800. H 26 2014-01-07T20:11 -31. 59. 58. 1920. H 27 2014-01-07T20:13 -37. 59. 62. 1873. H 28 2014-01-07T19:58 -41. 59. 59. 2179. H 29 2014-01-07T19:59 -42. 48. 59. 2184. H 30 2014-01-07T19:52 -40. 45. 59. 2323. H 31 2014-01-07T19:54 -36. 73. 59. 2261. H 32 2014-01-07T20:03 -33. 31. 52. 1940. H 33 2014-01-07T20:07 -39. 40. 58. 1913. H 34 2014-01-07T20:11 -33. 42. 55. 1816. H 35 2014-01-07T20:12 -40. 70. 60. 1800. H 36 2014-01-07T20:47 -37. 60. 71. 1422. H 37 2014-01-07T19:57 -32. 52. 60. 2166. M ========== MESSENGER table (NCMES=1) # time (21.5Rs) Lat Lon w/2 v flag Arrival time 1 2014-01-07T19:57 -31. 48. 54. 2153. C 2 2014-01-07T19:53 -32. 49. 56. 2344. C 3 2014-01-07T19:55 -32. 48. 62. 2200. C 4 2014-01-07T19:57 -31. 49. 55. 2143. C 5 2014-01-07T19:53 -32. 50. 59. 2324. C 6 2014-01-07T19:49 -31. 46. 57. 2398. C 7 2014-01-07T19:55 -32. 49. 55. 2188. C 8 2014-01-07T19:57 -32. 58. 62. 2170. C 9 2014-01-07T19:54 -33. 59. 56. 2295. C 10 2014-01-07T19:51 -32. 55. 55. 2349. C 11 2014-01-07T19:56 -33. 58. 59. 2206. C 12 2014-01-07T19:58 -30. 49. 58. 2132. C 13 2014-01-07T19:56 -31. 49. 60. 2178. C 14 2014-01-07T19:50 -30. 40. 68. 2400. H 15 2014-01-07T19:51 -29. 72. 59. 2348. H 16 2014-01-07T20:02 -29. 78. 55. 2041. H 17 2014-01-07T19:57 -31. 73. 58. 2162. H 18 2014-01-07T20:01 -32. 73. 56. 2084. H 19 2014-01-07T20:02 -30. 67. 60. 2131. H 20 2014-01-07T19:57 -31. 61. 59. 2222. H 21 2014-01-07T20:02 -32. 61. 59. 2095. H 22 2014-01-07T19:58 -30. 55. 55. 2175. H 23 2014-01-07T20:06 -30. 50. 58. 1997. H 24 2014-01-07T20:05 -29. 50. 62. 2030. H 25 2014-01-07T20:12 -29. 40. 55. 1800. H 26 2014-01-07T20:11 -31. 59. 58. 1920. H 27 2014-01-07T20:13 -37. 59. 62. 1873. H 28 2014-01-07T19:58 -41. 59. 59. 2179. H 29 2014-01-07T19:59 -42. 48. 59. 2184. H 30 2014-01-07T19:52 -40. 45. 59. 2323. H 31 2014-01-07T19:54 -36. 73. 59. 2261. H 32 2014-01-07T20:03 -33. 31. 52. 1940. H 33 2014-01-07T20:07 -39. 40. 58. 1913. H 34 2014-01-07T20:11 -33. 42. 55. 1816. H 35 2014-01-07T20:12 -40. 70. 60. 1800. H 36 2014-01-07T20:47 -37. 60. 71. 1422. H 37 2014-01-07T19:57 -32. 52. 60. 2166. M ========== Spitzer table (NCMES=1) # time (21.5Rs) Lat Lon w/2 v flag Arrival time 1 2014-01-07T19:57 -31. 48. 54. 2153. C 2 2014-01-07T19:53 -32. 49. 56. 2344. C 3 2014-01-07T19:55 -32. 48. 62. 2200. C 4 2014-01-07T19:57 -31. 49. 55. 2143. C 5 2014-01-07T19:53 -32. 50. 59. 2324. C 6 2014-01-07T19:49 -31. 46. 57. 2398. C 7 2014-01-07T19:55 -32. 49. 55. 2188. C 8 2014-01-07T19:57 -32. 58. 62. 2170. C 9 2014-01-07T19:54 -33. 59. 56. 2295. C 10 2014-01-07T19:51 -32. 55. 55. 2349. C 11 2014-01-07T19:56 -33. 58. 59. 2206. C 12 2014-01-07T19:58 -30. 49. 58. 2132. C 13 2014-01-07T19:56 -31. 49. 60. 2178. C 14 2014-01-07T19:50 -30. 40. 68. 2400. H 15 2014-01-07T19:51 -29. 72. 59. 2348. H 16 2014-01-07T20:02 -29. 78. 55. 2041. H 17 2014-01-07T19:57 -31. 73. 58. 2162. H 18 2014-01-07T20:01 -32. 73. 56. 2084. H 19 2014-01-07T20:02 -30. 67. 60. 2131. H 20 2014-01-07T19:57 -31. 61. 59. 2222. H 21 2014-01-07T20:02 -32. 61. 59. 2095. H 22 2014-01-07T19:58 -30. 55. 55. 2175. H 23 2014-01-07T20:06 -30. 50. 58. 1997. H 24 2014-01-07T20:05 -29. 50. 62. 2030. H 25 2014-01-07T20:12 -29. 40. 55. 1800. H 26 2014-01-07T20:11 -31. 59. 58. 1920. H 27 2014-01-07T20:13 -37. 59. 62. 1873. H 28 2014-01-07T19:58 -41. 59. 59. 2179. H 29 2014-01-07T19:59 -42. 48. 59. 2184. H 30 2014-01-07T19:52 -40. 45. 59. 2323. H 31 2014-01-07T19:54 -36. 73. 59. 2261. H 32 2014-01-07T20:03 -33. 31. 52. 1940. H 33 2014-01-07T20:07 -39. 40. 58. 1913. H 34 2014-01-07T20:11 -33. 42. 55. 1816. H 35 2014-01-07T20:12 -40. 70. 60. 1800. H 36 2014-01-07T20:47 -37. 60. 71. 1422. H 37 2014-01-07T19:57 -32. 52. 60. 2166. M ========== STEREO A table (NCMES=1) # time (21.5Rs) Lat Lon w/2 v flag Arrival time 1 2014-01-07T19:57 -31. 48. 54. 2153. C 2 2014-01-07T19:53 -32. 49. 56. 2344. C 3 2014-01-07T19:55 -32. 48. 62. 2200. C 4 2014-01-07T19:57 -31. 49. 55. 2143. C 5 2014-01-07T19:53 -32. 50. 59. 2324. C 6 2014-01-07T19:49 -31. 46. 57. 2398. C 7 2014-01-07T19:55 -32. 49. 55. 2188. C 8 2014-01-07T19:57 -32. 58. 62. 2170. C 9 2014-01-07T19:54 -33. 59. 56. 2295. C 10 2014-01-07T19:51 -32. 55. 55. 2349. C 11 2014-01-07T19:56 -33. 58. 59. 2206. C 12 2014-01-07T19:58 -30. 49. 58. 2132. C 13 2014-01-07T19:56 -31. 49. 60. 2178. C 14 2014-01-07T19:50 -30. 40. 68. 2400. H 15 2014-01-07T19:51 -29. 72. 59. 2348. H 16 2014-01-07T20:02 -29. 78. 55. 2041. H 17 2014-01-07T19:57 -31. 73. 58. 2162. H 18 2014-01-07T20:01 -32. 73. 56. 2084. H 19 2014-01-07T20:02 -30. 67. 60. 2131. H 20 2014-01-07T19:57 -31. 61. 59. 2222. H 21 2014-01-07T20:02 -32. 61. 59. 2095. H 22 2014-01-07T19:58 -30. 55. 55. 2175. H 23 2014-01-07T20:06 -30. 50. 58. 1997. H 24 2014-01-07T20:05 -29. 50. 62. 2030. H 25 2014-01-07T20:12 -29. 40. 55. 1800. H 26 2014-01-07T20:11 -31. 59. 58. 1920. H 27 2014-01-07T20:13 -37. 59. 62. 1873. H 28 2014-01-07T19:58 -41. 59. 59. 2179. H 29 2014-01-07T19:59 -42. 48. 59. 2184. H 30 2014-01-07T19:52 -40. 45. 59. 2323. H 31 2014-01-07T19:54 -36. 73. 59. 2261. H 32 2014-01-07T20:03 -33. 31. 52. 1940. H 33 2014-01-07T20:07 -39. 40. 58. 1913. H 34 2014-01-07T20:11 -33. 42. 55. 1816. H 35 2014-01-07T20:12 -40. 70. 60. 1800. H 36 2014-01-07T20:47 -37. 60. 71. 1422. H 37 2014-01-07T19:57 -32. 52. 60. 2166. M ========== STEREO B table (NCMES=1) # time (21.5Rs) Lat Lon w/2 v flag Arrival time 1 2014-01-07T19:57 -31. 48. 54. 2153. C 2 2014-01-07T19:53 -32. 49. 56. 2344. C 3 2014-01-07T19:55 -32. 48. 62. 2200. C 4 2014-01-07T19:57 -31. 49. 55. 2143. C 5 2014-01-07T19:53 -32. 50. 59. 2324. C 6 2014-01-07T19:49 -31. 46. 57. 2398. C 7 2014-01-07T19:55 -32. 49. 55. 2188. C 8 2014-01-07T19:57 -32. 58. 62. 2170. C 9 2014-01-07T19:54 -33. 59. 56. 2295. C 10 2014-01-07T19:51 -32. 55. 55. 2349. C 11 2014-01-07T19:56 -33. 58. 59. 2206. C 12 2014-01-07T19:58 -30. 49. 58. 2132. C 13 2014-01-07T19:56 -31. 49. 60. 2178. C 14 2014-01-07T19:50 -30. 40. 68. 2400. H 15 2014-01-07T19:51 -29. 72. 59. 2348. H 16 2014-01-07T20:02 -29. 78. 55. 2041. H 17 2014-01-07T19:57 -31. 73. 58. 2162. H 18 2014-01-07T20:01 -32. 73. 56. 2084. H 19 2014-01-07T20:02 -30. 67. 60. 2131. H 20 2014-01-07T19:57 -31. 61. 59. 2222. H 21 2014-01-07T20:02 -32. 61. 59. 2095. H 22 2014-01-07T19:58 -30. 55. 55. 2175. H 23 2014-01-07T20:06 -30. 50. 58. 1997. H 24 2014-01-07T20:05 -29. 50. 62. 2030. H 25 2014-01-07T20:12 -29. 40. 55. 1800. H 26 2014-01-07T20:11 -31. 59. 58. 1920. H 27 2014-01-07T20:13 -37. 59. 62. 1873. H 28 2014-01-07T19:58 -41. 59. 59. 2179. H 29 2014-01-07T19:59 -42. 48. 59. 2184. H 30 2014-01-07T19:52 -40. 45. 59. 2323. H 31 2014-01-07T19:54 -36. 73. 59. 2261. H 32 2014-01-07T20:03 -33. 31. 52. 1940. H 33 2014-01-07T20:07 -39. 40. 58. 1913. H 34 2014-01-07T20:11 -33. 42. 55. 1816. H 35 2014-01-07T20:12 -40. 70. 60. 1800. H 36 2014-01-07T20:47 -37. 60. 71. 1422. H 37 2014-01-07T19:57 -32. 52. 60. 2166. M ========== Mars table (NCMES=1) # time (21.5Rs) Lat Lon w/2 v flag Arrival time 1 2014-01-07T19:57 -31. 48. 54. 2153. C 2 2014-01-07T19:53 -32. 49. 56. 2344. C 3 2014-01-07T19:55 -32. 48. 62. 2200. C 2014-01-11T21:33 4 2014-01-07T19:57 -31. 49. 55. 2143. C 5 2014-01-07T19:53 -32. 50. 59. 2324. C 6 2014-01-07T19:49 -31. 46. 57. 2398. C 7 2014-01-07T19:55 -32. 49. 55. 2188. C 8 2014-01-07T19:57 -32. 58. 62. 2170. C 9 2014-01-07T19:54 -33. 59. 56. 2295. C 10 2014-01-07T19:51 -32. 55. 55. 2349. C 11 2014-01-07T19:56 -33. 58. 59. 2206. C 12 2014-01-07T19:58 -30. 49. 58. 2132. C 2014-01-12T00:23 13 2014-01-07T19:56 -31. 49. 60. 2178. C 2014-01-11T22:42 14 2014-01-07T19:50 -30. 40. 68. 2400. H 2014-01-11T10:12 15 2014-01-07T19:51 -29. 72. 59. 2348. H 16 2014-01-07T20:02 -29. 78. 55. 2041. H 17 2014-01-07T19:57 -31. 73. 58. 2162. H 18 2014-01-07T20:01 -32. 73. 56. 2084. H 19 2014-01-07T20:02 -30. 67. 60. 2131. H 20 2014-01-07T19:57 -31. 61. 59. 2222. H 21 2014-01-07T20:02 -32. 61. 59. 2095. H 22 2014-01-07T19:58 -30. 55. 55. 2175. H 23 2014-01-07T20:06 -30. 50. 58. 1997. H 24 2014-01-07T20:05 -29. 50. 62. 2030. H 2014-01-11T19:54 25 2014-01-07T20:12 -29. 40. 55. 1800. H 2014-01-12T11:28 26 2014-01-07T20:11 -31. 59. 58. 1920. H 27 2014-01-07T20:13 -37. 59. 62. 1873. H 28 2014-01-07T19:58 -41. 59. 59. 2179. H 29 2014-01-07T19:59 -42. 48. 59. 2184. H 30 2014-01-07T19:52 -40. 45. 59. 2323. H 31 2014-01-07T19:54 -36. 73. 59. 2261. H 32 2014-01-07T20:03 -33. 31. 52. 1940. H 33 2014-01-07T20:07 -39. 40. 58. 1913. H 34 2014-01-07T20:11 -33. 42. 55. 1816. H 35 2014-01-07T20:12 -40. 70. 60. 1800. H 36 2014-01-07T20:47 -37. 60. 71. 1422. H 37 2014-01-07T19:57 -32. 52. 60. 2166. M