detailed individual member results Sun Feb 2 02:24:39 UTC 2014 Detailed_results_20140131_163405_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050.txt >> file 2014-01-31_1_CMEs_Control_File_Saved_2014-02-01T1935Z_mlm.txt exists and has 21 lines >> There are 13 data_rows and 1 cmes/m_groups >> Summary: 13 xgroups: 12 simulations and 1 median simulation were submitted >> You have 1 loop(s) of 12, 0 simulations were leftover >> 12 of 12 simulations, and 1 median simulation were performed >> Using CR2146, Lon 088, and Startdate 2014-01-31 >> iswatag is 20140131_163405 (1st CME ID + seconds offset) SWRC CME ensemble is obtained by building sets of initial CME parameters and by carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach will allow mapping of uncertainties in the initial CME parameters into statistical characterization of the CME impact at locations of interest. Description of links: The first two links show the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median ensemble member, the third link is a histogram of predicted arrival times, and the remaining links show the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model density, velocity, magnetic field, and temperature at Earth. =================================Earth=================================== Earth (summary, more details follow below): Number_of_hits_Earth=12 Number_of_miss_Earth= 0 Earliest 2014-02-03T11:21 Average 2014-02-03T17:20 Latest 2014-02-04T02:26 Kp_90_min,Kp_90_avg,Kp_90_max = 3 3 4 Kp_135_min,Kp_135_avg,Kp_135_max= 4 5 6 Kp_180_min,Kp_180_avg,Kp_180_max= 5 5 6 Duration_min= 28.9 h Duration_avg= 31.0 h Duration_max= 33.5 h Standard deviation= 1.6 h mp_standoff_min= 5.8 Re mp_standoff_avg= 6.1 Re mp_standoff_max= 6.6 Re Standard deviation= 0.2 Re Earth results for median input parameters: Arrival time maxKp(90,135,180) Rmin(Re) Duration (hrs) 2014-02-03T16:34 4 5 6 6.0 29.9 http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-31_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050/20140131_163405_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050_anim_tim-den.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-31_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050/20140131_163405_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050_anim_tim-vel.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-31_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050/20140131_163405_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050_arrival_Earth.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-31_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050/20140131_163405_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050_Earth_Density.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-31_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050/20140131_163405_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050_Earth_Velocity.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-31_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050/20140131_163405_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050_Earth_Magnetic_field.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-31_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050/20140131_163405_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050_Earth_Temperature.gif ======================================= ### Alert information .... Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Earth. Out of 12 ensemble members (see notes section), 12 indicate impact at Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach Earth between about 2014-02-03T11:21Z and 2014-02-04T02:26Z (average arrival 2014-02-03T17:20Z). The roughly estimated ensemble-based expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-6 (below minor to moderate). Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event at Earth: http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-31_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050/20140131_163405_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050_anim_tim-den.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-31_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050/20140131_163405_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050_anim_tim-vel.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-31_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050/20140131_163405_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050_arrival_Earth.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-31_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050/20140131_163405_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050_Earth_Density.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-31_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050/20140131_163405_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050_Earth_Velocity.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-31_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050/20140131_163405_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050_Earth_Magnetic_field.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-31_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050/20140131_163405_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050_Earth_Temperature.gif ## Notes: SWRC CME ensemble is obtained by building sets of initial CME parameters and by carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach will allow mapping of uncertainties in the initial CME parameters into statistical characterization of the CME impact at locations of interest. Description of links: The first two links show the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median ensemble member, the third link is a histogram of predicted arrival times, and the remaining links show the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model density, velocity, magnetic field, and temperature at Earth. For the full details of the modeled event (including possible impacts at other locations), please go here: http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-31_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050/Detailed_results_20140131_163405_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050.txt ### ===========================other locations=============================== MESSENGER: Number_of_hits_Mess=12 Number_of_miss_Mess= 0 Earliest 2014-02-01T10:11 Average 2014-02-01T11:42 Latest 2014-02-01T14:37 Median Input 2014-02-01T11:36 http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-31_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050/20140131_163405_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050_anim_tim-den.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-31_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050/20140131_163405_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050_anim_tim-vel.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-31_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050/20140131_163405_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050_arrival_Mess.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-31_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050/20140131_163405_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050_Mess_Density.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-31_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050/20140131_163405_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050_Mess_Velocity.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-31_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050/20140131_163405_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050_Mess_Magnetic_field.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-31_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050/20140131_163405_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050_Mess_Temperature.gif Spitzer: Number_of_hits_Spitz= 1 Number_of_miss_Spitz=11 Earliest 2014-02-03T13:09 Average 2014-02-03T13:09 Latest 2014-02-03T13:09 http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-31_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050/20140131_163405_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050_anim_tim-den.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-31_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050/20140131_163405_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050_anim_tim-vel.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-31_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050/20140131_163405_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050_arrival_Spitzer.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-31_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050/20140131_163405_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050_Spitz_Density.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-31_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050/20140131_163405_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050_Spitz_Velocity.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-31_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050/20140131_163405_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050_Spitz_Magnetic_field.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-31_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050/20140131_163405_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050_Spitz_Temperature.gif STEREO A: Number_of_hits_STA= 0 Number_of_miss_STA=12 No CME simulation in this ensemble hit STEREO A or the impact is weak STEREO B: Number_of_hits_STB= 0 Number_of_miss_STB=12 No CME simulation in this ensemble hit STEREO B or the impact is weak Mars: Number_of_hits_Mars= 0 Number_of_miss_Mars=12 No CME simulation in this ensemble hit Mars or the impact is weak ========================================================================= Earth table (NCMES=1) # time (21.5Rs) Lat Lon w/2 v flag Arrival time maxKp(90,135,180) Rmin(Re) Duration (hrs) 1 2014-01-31T22:00 12. -29. 38. 810. C 2014-02-03T14:07 4 5 6 6.1 31.5 2 2014-01-31T22:00 13. -28. 34. 686. C 2014-02-03T21:06 3 5 5 6.4 32.9 3 2014-01-31T22:02 14. -28. 35. 548. C 2014-02-04T02:26 3 4 5 6.6 33.5 4 2014-01-31T22:01 9. -29. 41. 710. C 2014-02-03T15:45 4 6 6 5.9 29.3 5 2014-01-31T22:10 7. -30. 43. 720. C 2014-02-03T14:39 4 6 6 5.8 28.9 6 2014-01-31T21:59 9. -30. 42. 817. C 2014-02-03T11:21 4 6 6 5.8 30.1 7 2014-01-31T22:04 15. -29. 40. 715. H 2014-02-03T17:34 4 5 6 6.1 30.5 8 2014-01-31T22:47 10. -32. 40. 728. H 2014-02-03T17:19 4 5 6 6.1 30.7 9 2014-01-31T22:05 18. -32. 40. 713. H 2014-02-03T19:42 3 5 5 6.3 32.7 10 2014-01-31T22:03 12. -29. 40. 711. H 2014-02-03T16:52 4 5 6 6.1 29.9 11 2014-01-31T22:00 15. -33. 40. 740. H 2014-02-03T17:59 4 5 5 6.3 32.5 12 2014-01-31T22:02 11. -26. 40. 722. H 2014-02-03T15:16 4 6 6 5.9 29.1 13 2014-01-31T22:02 12. -29. 40. 718. M 2014-02-03T16:34 4 5 6 6.0 29.9 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> member number 1 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 1 2014-01-31T22:00 12. -29. 38. 810. C CME_estimate_AFWA_1.txt Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU based on heliospheric MHD simulations. Produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC for the Air Force Weather Agency. For more information please contact: Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov ****************************************************** Estimate issued on 2014/02/01, 21:20:06 EST ****************************************************** Arrival time(year/month/day, hr:min UT) =2014-02-03T14:07Z (confidence level +-7 hours) Duration of the disturbance (hr) = 31.5 (confidence level +-8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re)=6.1 (under quiet conditions: Rmin(Re)=10; R_geosynchr(Re)=6.6) Kp index for three possible IMF clock angles (angle 180 gives the maximum possible estimated Kp): (Kp)_90=4 (Kp)_135=5 (Kp)_180=6 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> member number 2 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 2 2014-01-31T22:00 13. -28. 34. 686. C CME_estimate_AFWA_2.txt Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU based on heliospheric MHD simulations. Produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC for the Air Force Weather Agency. For more information please contact: Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov ****************************************************** Estimate issued on 2014/02/01, 21:20:11 EST ****************************************************** Arrival time(year/month/day, hr:min UT) =2014-02-03T21:06Z (confidence level +-7 hours) Duration of the disturbance (hr) = 32.9 (confidence level +-8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re)=6.4 (under quiet conditions: Rmin(Re)=10; R_geosynchr(Re)=6.6) Kp index for three possible IMF clock angles (angle 180 gives the maximum possible estimated Kp): (Kp)_90=3 (Kp)_135=5 (Kp)_180=5 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> member number 3 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 3 2014-01-31T22:02 14. -28. 35. 548. C CME_estimate_AFWA_3.txt Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU based on heliospheric MHD simulations. Produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC for the Air Force Weather Agency. For more information please contact: Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov ****************************************************** Estimate issued on 2014/02/01, 21:20:15 EST ****************************************************** Arrival time(year/month/day, hr:min UT) =2014-02-04T02:26Z (confidence level +-7 hours) Duration of the disturbance (hr) = 33.5 (confidence level +-8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re)=6.6 (under quiet conditions: Rmin(Re)=10; R_geosynchr(Re)=6.6) Kp index for three possible IMF clock angles (angle 180 gives the maximum possible estimated Kp): (Kp)_90=3 (Kp)_135=4 (Kp)_180=5 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> member number 4 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 4 2014-01-31T22:01 9. -29. 41. 710. C CME_estimate_AFWA_4.txt Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU based on heliospheric MHD simulations. Produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC for the Air Force Weather Agency. For more information please contact: Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov ****************************************************** Estimate issued on 2014/02/01, 21:20:20 EST ****************************************************** Arrival time(year/month/day, hr:min UT) =2014-02-03T15:45Z (confidence level +-7 hours) Duration of the disturbance (hr) = 29.3 (confidence level +-8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re)=5.9 (under quiet conditions: Rmin(Re)=10; R_geosynchr(Re)=6.6) Kp index for three possible IMF clock angles (angle 180 gives the maximum possible estimated Kp): (Kp)_90=4 (Kp)_135=6 (Kp)_180=6 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> member number 5 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 5 2014-01-31T22:10 7. -30. 43. 720. C CME_estimate_AFWA_5.txt Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU based on heliospheric MHD simulations. Produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC for the Air Force Weather Agency. For more information please contact: Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov ****************************************************** Estimate issued on 2014/02/01, 21:20:25 EST ****************************************************** Arrival time(year/month/day, hr:min UT) =2014-02-03T14:39Z (confidence level +-7 hours) Duration of the disturbance (hr) = 28.9 (confidence level +-8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re)=5.8 (under quiet conditions: Rmin(Re)=10; R_geosynchr(Re)=6.6) Kp index for three possible IMF clock angles (angle 180 gives the maximum possible estimated Kp): (Kp)_90=4 (Kp)_135=6 (Kp)_180=6 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> member number 6 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 6 2014-01-31T21:59 9. -30. 42. 817. C CME_estimate_AFWA_6.txt Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU based on heliospheric MHD simulations. Produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC for the Air Force Weather Agency. For more information please contact: Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov ****************************************************** Estimate issued on 2014/02/01, 21:20:30 EST ****************************************************** Arrival time(year/month/day, hr:min UT) =2014-02-03T11:21Z (confidence level +-7 hours) Duration of the disturbance (hr) = 30.1 (confidence level +-8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re)=5.8 (under quiet conditions: Rmin(Re)=10; R_geosynchr(Re)=6.6) Kp index for three possible IMF clock angles (angle 180 gives the maximum possible estimated Kp): (Kp)_90=4 (Kp)_135=6 (Kp)_180=6 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> member number 7 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 7 2014-01-31T22:04 15. -29. 40. 715. H CME_estimate_AFWA_7.txt Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU based on heliospheric MHD simulations. Produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC for the Air Force Weather Agency. For more information please contact: Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov ****************************************************** Estimate issued on 2014/02/01, 21:20:34 EST ****************************************************** Arrival time(year/month/day, hr:min UT) =2014-02-03T17:34Z (confidence level +-7 hours) Duration of the disturbance (hr) = 30.5 (confidence level +-8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re)=6.1 (under quiet conditions: Rmin(Re)=10; R_geosynchr(Re)=6.6) Kp index for three possible IMF clock angles (angle 180 gives the maximum possible estimated Kp): (Kp)_90=4 (Kp)_135=5 (Kp)_180=6 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> member number 8 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 8 2014-01-31T22:47 10. -32. 40. 728. H CME_estimate_AFWA_8.txt Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU based on heliospheric MHD simulations. Produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC for the Air Force Weather Agency. For more information please contact: Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov ****************************************************** Estimate issued on 2014/02/01, 21:20:39 EST ****************************************************** Arrival time(year/month/day, hr:min UT) =2014-02-03T17:19Z (confidence level +-7 hours) Duration of the disturbance (hr) = 30.7 (confidence level +-8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re)=6.1 (under quiet conditions: Rmin(Re)=10; R_geosynchr(Re)=6.6) Kp index for three possible IMF clock angles (angle 180 gives the maximum possible estimated Kp): (Kp)_90=4 (Kp)_135=5 (Kp)_180=6 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> member number 9 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 9 2014-01-31T22:05 18. -32. 40. 713. H CME_estimate_AFWA_9.txt Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU based on heliospheric MHD simulations. Produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC for the Air Force Weather Agency. For more information please contact: Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov ****************************************************** Estimate issued on 2014/02/01, 21:20:44 EST ****************************************************** Arrival time(year/month/day, hr:min UT) =2014-02-03T19:42Z (confidence level +-7 hours) Duration of the disturbance (hr) = 32.7 (confidence level +-8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re)=6.3 (under quiet conditions: Rmin(Re)=10; R_geosynchr(Re)=6.6) Kp index for three possible IMF clock angles (angle 180 gives the maximum possible estimated Kp): (Kp)_90=3 (Kp)_135=5 (Kp)_180=5 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> member number 10 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 10 2014-01-31T22:03 12. -29. 40. 711. H CME_estimate_AFWA_10.txt Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU based on heliospheric MHD simulations. Produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC for the Air Force Weather Agency. For more information please contact: Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov ****************************************************** Estimate issued on 2014/02/01, 21:20:49 EST ****************************************************** Arrival time(year/month/day, hr:min UT) =2014-02-03T16:52Z (confidence level +-7 hours) Duration of the disturbance (hr) = 29.9 (confidence level +-8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re)=6.1 (under quiet conditions: Rmin(Re)=10; R_geosynchr(Re)=6.6) Kp index for three possible IMF clock angles (angle 180 gives the maximum possible estimated Kp): (Kp)_90=4 (Kp)_135=5 (Kp)_180=6 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> member number 11 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 11 2014-01-31T22:00 15. -33. 40. 740. H CME_estimate_AFWA_11.txt Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU based on heliospheric MHD simulations. Produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC for the Air Force Weather Agency. For more information please contact: Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov ****************************************************** Estimate issued on 2014/02/01, 21:20:53 EST ****************************************************** Arrival time(year/month/day, hr:min UT) =2014-02-03T17:59Z (confidence level +-7 hours) Duration of the disturbance (hr) = 32.5 (confidence level +-8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re)=6.3 (under quiet conditions: Rmin(Re)=10; R_geosynchr(Re)=6.6) Kp index for three possible IMF clock angles (angle 180 gives the maximum possible estimated Kp): (Kp)_90=4 (Kp)_135=5 (Kp)_180=5 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> member number 12 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 12 2014-01-31T22:02 11. -26. 40. 722. H CME_estimate_AFWA_12.txt Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU based on heliospheric MHD simulations. Produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC for the Air Force Weather Agency. For more information please contact: Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov ****************************************************** Estimate issued on 2014/02/01, 21:20:58 EST ****************************************************** Arrival time(year/month/day, hr:min UT) =2014-02-03T15:16Z (confidence level +-7 hours) Duration of the disturbance (hr) = 29.1 (confidence level +-8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re)=5.9 (under quiet conditions: Rmin(Re)=10; R_geosynchr(Re)=6.6) Kp index for three possible IMF clock angles (angle 180 gives the maximum possible estimated Kp): (Kp)_90=4 (Kp)_135=6 (Kp)_180=6 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> median case <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 13 2014-01-31T22:02 12. -29. 40. 718. M CME_estimate_AFWA_median.txt Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU based on heliospheric MHD simulations. Produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC for the Air Force Weather Agency. For more information please contact: Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov ****************************************************** Estimate issued on 2014/02/01, 21:21:04 EST ****************************************************** Arrival time(year/month/day, hr:min UT) =2014-02-03T16:34Z (confidence level +-7 hours) Duration of the disturbance (hr) = 29.9 (confidence level +-8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re)=6.0 (under quiet conditions: Rmin(Re)=10; R_geosynchr(Re)=6.6) Kp index for three possible IMF clock angles (angle 180 gives the maximum possible estimated Kp): (Kp)_90=4 (Kp)_135=5 (Kp)_180=6