detailed individual member results Tue Feb 18 19:10:13 UTC 2014 Detailed_results_20140218_022400_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055.txt >> file 2014-02-18_1_CMEs_Control_File_Saved_2014-02-18T0125Z.txt exists and has 46 lines, 46 datalines >> There are 37 data_rows and 1 cmes/m_groups >> Summary: 37 xgroups: 36 simulations and 1 median simulation were submitted >> You have 3 loop(s) of 12, 0 simulations were leftover >> 36 of 36 simulations, and 1 median simulation were performed >> Using CR2147, Lon 211, and Startdate 2014-02-18 >> iswatag is 20140218_022400 (1st image time) SWRC CME ensemble is obtained by building sets of initial CME parameters and by carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach will allow mapping of uncertainties in the initial CME parameters into statistical characterization of the CME impact at locations of interest. Description of links: The first two links show the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median ensemble member, the third link is a histogram of predicted arrival times, and the remaining links show the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model density, velocity, magnetic field, and temperature at Earth. =================================Earth=================================== Earth (summary, more details follow below): Number_of_hits_Earth=29 Number_of_miss_Earth= 7 Earliest 2014-02-19T11:45 Average 2014-02-20T16:29 Latest 2014-02-21T10:08 Kp_90_min,Kp_90_avg,Kp_90_max = 2 3 6 Kp_135_min,Kp_135_avg,Kp_135_max= 3 5 7 Kp_180_min,Kp_180_avg,Kp_180_max= 4 5 8 Duration_min= 24.1 h Duration_avg= 27.8 h Duration_max= 31.2 h Standard deviation= 1.9 h mp_standoff_min= 4.7 Re mp_standoff_avg= 5.6 Re mp_standoff_max= 6.8 Re Standard deviation= 0.5 Re Earth results for median input parameters: Arrival time maxKp(90,135,180) Rmin(Re) Duration (hrs) 2014-02-20T16:05 4 5 6 5.7 29.0 http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-18_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055/20140218_022400_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055_anim_tim-den.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-18_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055/20140218_022400_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055_anim_tim-vel.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-18_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055/20140218_022400_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055_arrival_Earth.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-18_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055/20140218_022400_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055_Earth_Density.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-18_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055/20140218_022400_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055_Earth_Velocity.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-18_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055/20140218_022400_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055_Earth_Magnetic_field.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-18_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055/20140218_022400_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055_Earth_Temperature.gif ======================================= ### Alert information .... Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Earth. Out of 36 ensemble members (see notes section), 29 indicate impact at Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach Earth between about 2014-02-19T11:45Z and 2014-02-21T10:08Z (average arrival 2014-02-20T16:29Z). The roughly estimated ensemble-based expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-8 (below minor to severe). Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event at Earth: http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-18_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055/20140218_022400_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055_anim_tim-den.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-18_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055/20140218_022400_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055_anim_tim-vel.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-18_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055/20140218_022400_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055_arrival_Earth.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-18_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055/20140218_022400_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055_Earth_Density.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-18_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055/20140218_022400_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055_Earth_Velocity.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-18_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055/20140218_022400_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055_Earth_Magnetic_field.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-18_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055/20140218_022400_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055_Earth_Temperature.gif ## Notes: SWRC CME ensemble is obtained by building sets of initial CME parameters and by carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach will allow mapping of uncertainties in the initial CME parameters into statistical characterization of the CME impact at locations of interest. Description of links: The first two links show the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median ensemble member, the third link is a histogram of predicted arrival times, and the remaining links show the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model density, velocity, magnetic field, and temperature at Earth. For the full details of the modeled event (including possible impacts at other locations), please go here: http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-18_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055/Detailed_results_20140218_022400_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055.txt ### ===========================other locations=============================== MESSENGER: Number_of_hits_Mess=27 Number_of_miss_Mess= 9 Earliest 2014-02-18T11:35 Average 2014-02-18T23:50 Latest 2014-02-19T10:28 Median Input 2014-02-19T00:04 http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-18_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055/20140218_022400_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055_anim_tim-den.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-18_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055/20140218_022400_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055_anim_tim-vel.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-18_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055/20140218_022400_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055_arrival_Mess.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-18_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055/20140218_022400_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055_Mess_Density.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-18_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055/20140218_022400_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055_Mess_Velocity.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-18_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055/20140218_022400_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055_Mess_Magnetic_field.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-18_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055/20140218_022400_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055_Mess_Temperature.gif Spitzer: Number_of_hits_Spitz=28 Number_of_miss_Spitz= 8 Earliest 2014-02-20T07:05 Average 2014-02-20T20:45 Latest 2014-02-21T15:53 Median Input 2014-02-20T17:51 http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-18_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055/20140218_022400_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055_anim_tim-den.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-18_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055/20140218_022400_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055_anim_tim-vel.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-18_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055/20140218_022400_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055_arrival_Spitzer.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-18_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055/20140218_022400_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055_Spitz_Density.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-18_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055/20140218_022400_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055_Spitz_Velocity.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-18_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055/20140218_022400_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055_Spitz_Magnetic_field.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-18_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055/20140218_022400_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055_Spitz_Temperature.gif STEREO A: Number_of_hits_STA= 0 Number_of_miss_STA=36 No CME simulation in this ensemble hit STEREO A or the impact is weak STEREO B: Number_of_hits_STB= 0 Number_of_miss_STB=36 No CME simulation in this ensemble hit STEREO B or the impact is weak Mars: Number_of_hits_Mars= 9 Number_of_miss_Mars=27 Earliest 2014-02-21T02:45 Average 2014-02-22T09:19 Latest 2014-02-23T14:06 http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-18_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055/20140218_022400_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055_anim_tim-den.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-18_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055/20140218_022400_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055_anim_tim-vel.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-18_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055/20140218_022400_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055_arrival_Mars.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-18_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055/20140218_022400_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055_Mars_Density.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-18_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055/20140218_022400_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055_Mars_Velocity.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-18_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055/20140218_022400_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055_Mars_Magnetic_field.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-02-18_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055/20140218_022400_ncmes1_sims36_LIHUE055_Mars_Temperature.gif ========================================================================= Earth table (NCMES=1) # time (21.5Rs) Lat Lon w/2 v flag Arrival time maxKp(90,135,180) Rmin(Re) Duration (hrs) 1 2014-02-18T04:14 -27. -16. 51. 1073. C 2014-02-20T03:25 5 6 7 5.1 29.2 2 2014-02-18T04:57 -32. -28. 53. 919. C 2014-02-20T10:49 4 6 6 5.3 28.7 3 2014-02-18T03:12 -22. -11. 47. 1872. C 2014-02-19T11:45 6 7 8 4.7 29.8 4 2014-02-18T03:33 -26. -19. 51. 1677. C 2014-02-19T14:47 6 7 8 4.8 29.4 5 2014-02-18T07:32 -28. -59. 63. 600. H 2014-02-21T10:08 3 4 5 6.1 25.9 6 2014-02-18T07:32 -23. -59. 63. 600. H 2014-02-21T09:15 3 5 5 6.1 26.1 7 2014-02-18T07:32 -28. -49. 63. 600. H 2014-02-21T06:09 4 5 5 5.7 26.3 8 2014-02-18T07:32 -19. -39. 63. 600. H 2014-02-21T03:30 4 5 6 5.5 24.8 9 2014-02-18T07:32 -19. -29. 53. 600. H 2014-02-21T03:03 4 5 6 5.6 26.1 10 2014-02-18T07:32 -28. -59. 43. 600. H 11 2014-02-18T07:32 -23. -59. 43. 600. H 12 2014-02-18T07:32 -28. -49. 43. 600. H 13 2014-02-18T07:32 -19. -39. 43. 600. H 2014-02-21T08:55 3 4 5 6.3 24.5 14 2014-02-18T07:32 -19. -29. 43. 600. H 2014-02-21T05:03 3 5 5 5.9 26.3 15 2014-02-18T05:28 -28. -59. 63. 850. H 2014-02-20T19:50 3 5 5 5.9 29.6 16 2014-02-18T05:28 -23. -59. 63. 850. H 2014-02-20T18:57 4 5 6 5.8 29.4 17 2014-02-18T05:28 -28. -49. 63. 850. H 2014-02-20T15:25 4 6 6 5.5 28.1 18 2014-02-18T05:28 -19. -39. 63. 850. H 2014-02-20T12:27 5 6 7 5.1 27.2 19 2014-02-18T05:28 -19. -29. 63. 850. H 2014-02-20T11:22 5 6 7 5.0 25.9 20 2014-02-18T05:28 -28. -59. 43. 850. H 21 2014-02-18T05:28 -23. -59. 43. 850. H 22 2014-02-18T05:28 -28. -49. 43. 850. H 2014-02-21T07:39 2 3 4 6.8 24.1 23 2014-02-18T05:28 -19. -39. 43. 850. H 2014-02-20T19:58 3 5 5 6.0 28.3 24 2014-02-18T05:28 -19. -29. 43. 850. H 2014-02-20T15:35 4 5 6 5.6 28.1 25 2014-02-18T04:37 -28. -59. 63. 1000. H 2014-02-20T13:36 4 5 6 5.9 31.2 26 2014-02-18T04:37 -23. -59. 63. 1000. H 2014-02-20T12:37 4 5 6 5.8 31.0 27 2014-02-18T04:37 -28. -49. 63. 1000. H 2014-02-20T09:09 4 6 6 5.4 29.2 28 2014-02-18T04:37 -19. -39. 63. 1000. H 2014-02-20T06:00 5 7 7 5.0 28.3 29 2014-02-18T04:37 -19. -29. 63. 1000. H 2014-02-20T04:55 5 7 7 4.9 27.0 30 2014-02-18T04:37 -28. -59. 43. 1000. H 31 2014-02-18T04:37 -23. -59. 43. 1000. H 32 2014-02-18T04:37 -28. -49. 43. 1000. H 2014-02-21T01:54 3 4 4 6.7 26.3 33 2014-02-18T04:37 -19. -39. 43. 1000. H 2014-02-20T14:14 3 5 5 5.9 29.9 34 2014-02-18T04:37 -19. -29. 43. 1000. H 2014-02-20T09:48 4 6 6 5.5 28.7 35 2014-02-18T05:28 -29. -34. 53. 850. H 2014-02-20T14:46 4 6 6 5.5 28.3 36 2014-02-18T05:28 -24. -39. 53. 850. H 2014-02-20T15:19 4 6 6 5.5 28.3 37 2014-02-18T05:20 -24. -43. 52. 882. M 2014-02-20T16:05 4 5 6 5.7 29.0 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> member number 1 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 1 2014-02-18T04:14 -27. -16. 51. 1073. C CME_estimate_AFWA_1.txt Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU based on heliospheric MHD simulations. Produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC for the Air Force Weather Agency. For more information please contact: Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov ****************************************************** Estimate issued on 2014/02/18, 14:02:58 EST ****************************************************** Arrival time(year/month/day, hr:min UT) =2014-02-20T03:25Z (confidence level +-7 hours) Duration of the disturbance (hr) = 29.2 (confidence level +-8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re)=5.1 (under quiet conditions: Rmin(Re)=10; R_geosynchr(Re)=6.6) Kp index for three possible IMF clock angles (angle 180 gives the maximum possible estimated Kp): (Kp)_90=5 (Kp)_135=6 (Kp)_180=7 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> member number 2 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 2 2014-02-18T04:57 -32. -28. 53. 919. C CME_estimate_AFWA_2.txt Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU based on heliospheric MHD simulations. Produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC for the Air Force Weather Agency. For more information please contact: Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov ****************************************************** Estimate issued on 2014/02/18, 14:03:03 EST ****************************************************** Arrival time(year/month/day, hr:min UT) =2014-02-20T10:49Z (confidence level +-7 hours) Duration of the disturbance (hr) = 28.7 (confidence level +-8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re)=5.3 (under quiet conditions: Rmin(Re)=10; R_geosynchr(Re)=6.6) Kp index for three possible IMF clock angles (angle 180 gives the maximum possible estimated Kp): (Kp)_90=4 (Kp)_135=6 (Kp)_180=6 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> member number 3 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 3 2014-02-18T03:12 -22. -11. 47. 1872. C CME_estimate_AFWA_3.txt Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU based on heliospheric MHD simulations. Produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC for the Air Force Weather Agency. For more information please contact: Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov ****************************************************** Estimate issued on 2014/02/18, 14:03:08 EST ****************************************************** Arrival time(year/month/day, hr:min UT) =2014-02-19T11:45Z (confidence level +-7 hours) Duration of the disturbance (hr) = 29.8 (confidence level +-8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re)=4.7 (under quiet conditions: Rmin(Re)=10; R_geosynchr(Re)=6.6) Kp index for three possible IMF clock angles (angle 180 gives the maximum possible estimated Kp): (Kp)_90=6 (Kp)_135=7 (Kp)_180=8 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> member number 4 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 4 2014-02-18T03:33 -26. -19. 51. 1677. C CME_estimate_AFWA_4.txt Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU based on heliospheric MHD simulations. Produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC for the Air Force Weather Agency. For more information please contact: Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov ****************************************************** Estimate issued on 2014/02/18, 14:03:13 EST ****************************************************** Arrival time(year/month/day, hr:min UT) =2014-02-19T14:47Z (confidence level +-7 hours) Duration of the disturbance (hr) = 29.4 (confidence level +-8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re)=4.8 (under quiet conditions: Rmin(Re)=10; R_geosynchr(Re)=6.6) Kp index for three possible IMF clock angles (angle 180 gives the maximum possible estimated Kp): (Kp)_90=6 (Kp)_135=7 (Kp)_180=8 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> member number 5 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 5 2014-02-18T07:32 -28. -59. 63. 600. H CME_estimate_AFWA_5.txt Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU based on heliospheric MHD simulations. Produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC for the Air Force Weather Agency. For more information please contact: Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov ****************************************************** Estimate issued on 2014/02/18, 14:03:18 EST ****************************************************** Arrival time(year/month/day, hr:min UT) =2014-02-21T10:08Z (confidence level +-7 hours) Duration of the disturbance (hr) = 25.9 (confidence level +-8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re)=6.1 (under quiet conditions: Rmin(Re)=10; R_geosynchr(Re)=6.6) Kp index for three possible IMF clock angles (angle 180 gives the maximum possible estimated Kp): (Kp)_90=3 (Kp)_135=4 (Kp)_180=5 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> member number 6 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 6 2014-02-18T07:32 -23. -59. 63. 600. H CME_estimate_AFWA_6.txt Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU based on heliospheric MHD simulations. Produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC for the Air Force Weather Agency. For more information please contact: Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov ****************************************************** Estimate issued on 2014/02/18, 14:03:22 EST ****************************************************** Arrival time(year/month/day, hr:min UT) =2014-02-21T09:15Z (confidence level +-7 hours) Duration of the disturbance (hr) = 26.1 (confidence level +-8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re)=6.1 (under quiet conditions: Rmin(Re)=10; R_geosynchr(Re)=6.6) Kp index for three possible IMF clock angles (angle 180 gives the maximum possible estimated Kp): (Kp)_90=3 (Kp)_135=5 (Kp)_180=5 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> member number 7 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 7 2014-02-18T07:32 -28. -49. 63. 600. H CME_estimate_AFWA_7.txt Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU based on heliospheric MHD simulations. Produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC for the Air Force Weather Agency. For more information please contact: Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov ****************************************************** Estimate issued on 2014/02/18, 14:03:27 EST ****************************************************** Arrival time(year/month/day, hr:min UT) =2014-02-21T06:09Z (confidence level +-7 hours) Duration of the disturbance (hr) = 26.3 (confidence level +-8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re)=5.7 (under quiet conditions: Rmin(Re)=10; R_geosynchr(Re)=6.6) Kp index for three possible IMF clock angles (angle 180 gives the maximum possible estimated Kp): (Kp)_90=4 (Kp)_135=5 (Kp)_180=5 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> member number 8 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 8 2014-02-18T07:32 -19. -39. 63. 600. H CME_estimate_AFWA_8.txt Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU based on heliospheric MHD simulations. Produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC for the Air Force Weather Agency. For more information please contact: Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov ****************************************************** Estimate issued on 2014/02/18, 14:03:32 EST ****************************************************** Arrival time(year/month/day, hr:min UT) =2014-02-21T03:30Z (confidence level +-7 hours) Duration of the disturbance (hr) = 24.8 (confidence level +-8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re)=5.5 (under quiet conditions: Rmin(Re)=10; R_geosynchr(Re)=6.6) Kp index for three possible IMF clock angles (angle 180 gives the maximum possible estimated Kp): (Kp)_90=4 (Kp)_135=5 (Kp)_180=6 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> member number 9 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 9 2014-02-18T07:32 -19. -29. 53. 600. H CME_estimate_AFWA_9.txt Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU based on heliospheric MHD simulations. Produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC for the Air Force Weather Agency. For more information please contact: Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov ****************************************************** Estimate issued on 2014/02/18, 14:03:36 EST ****************************************************** Arrival time(year/month/day, hr:min UT) =2014-02-21T03:03Z (confidence level +-7 hours) Duration of the disturbance (hr) = 26.1 (confidence level +-8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re)=5.6 (under quiet conditions: Rmin(Re)=10; R_geosynchr(Re)=6.6) Kp index for three possible IMF clock angles (angle 180 gives the maximum possible estimated Kp): (Kp)_90=4 (Kp)_135=5 (Kp)_180=6 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> member number 10 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 10 2014-02-18T07:32 -28. -59. 43. 600. H CME_estimate_AFWA_10.txt Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU based on heliospheric MHD simulations. Produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC. For more information please contact: Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov ****************************************************** Estimate issued on 2014/02/18, 14:03:41 EST ****************************************************** CME did not hit the Earth. or CME impact is very weak. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> member number 11 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 11 2014-02-18T07:32 -23. -59. 43. 600. H CME_estimate_AFWA_11.txt Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU based on heliospheric MHD simulations. Produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC. For more information please contact: Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov ****************************************************** Estimate issued on 2014/02/18, 14:03:46 EST ****************************************************** CME did not hit the Earth. or CME impact is very weak. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> member number 12 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 12 2014-02-18T07:32 -28. -49. 43. 600. H CME_estimate_AFWA_12.txt Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU based on heliospheric MHD simulations. Produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC. For more information please contact: Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov ****************************************************** Estimate issued on 2014/02/18, 14:03:51 EST ****************************************************** CME did not hit the Earth. or CME impact is very weak. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> member number 13 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 13 2014-02-18T07:32 -19. -39. 43. 600. H CME_estimate_AFWA_13.txt Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU based on heliospheric MHD simulations. Produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC for the Air Force Weather Agency. For more information please contact: Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov ****************************************************** Estimate issued on 2014/02/18, 14:03:55 EST ****************************************************** Arrival time(year/month/day, hr:min UT) =2014-02-21T08:55Z (confidence level +-7 hours) Duration of the disturbance (hr) = 24.5 (confidence level +-8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re)=6.3 (under quiet conditions: Rmin(Re)=10; R_geosynchr(Re)=6.6) Kp index for three possible IMF clock angles (angle 180 gives the maximum possible estimated Kp): (Kp)_90=3 (Kp)_135=4 (Kp)_180=5 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> member number 14 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 14 2014-02-18T07:32 -19. -29. 43. 600. H CME_estimate_AFWA_14.txt Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU based on heliospheric MHD simulations. Produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC for the Air Force Weather Agency. For more information please contact: Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov ****************************************************** Estimate issued on 2014/02/18, 14:04:00 EST ****************************************************** Arrival time(year/month/day, hr:min UT) =2014-02-21T05:03Z (confidence level +-7 hours) Duration of the disturbance (hr) = 26.3 (confidence level +-8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re)=5.9 (under quiet conditions: Rmin(Re)=10; R_geosynchr(Re)=6.6) Kp index for three possible IMF clock angles (angle 180 gives the maximum possible estimated Kp): (Kp)_90=3 (Kp)_135=5 (Kp)_180=5 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> member number 15 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 15 2014-02-18T05:28 -28. -59. 63. 850. H CME_estimate_AFWA_15.txt Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU based on heliospheric MHD simulations. Produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC for the Air Force Weather Agency. For more information please contact: Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov ****************************************************** Estimate issued on 2014/02/18, 14:04:05 EST ****************************************************** Arrival time(year/month/day, hr:min UT) =2014-02-20T19:50Z (confidence level +-7 hours) Duration of the disturbance (hr) = 29.6 (confidence level +-8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re)=5.9 (under quiet conditions: Rmin(Re)=10; R_geosynchr(Re)=6.6) Kp index for three possible IMF clock angles (angle 180 gives the maximum possible estimated Kp): (Kp)_90=3 (Kp)_135=5 (Kp)_180=5 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> member number 16 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 16 2014-02-18T05:28 -23. -59. 63. 850. H CME_estimate_AFWA_16.txt Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU based on heliospheric MHD simulations. Produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC for the Air Force Weather Agency. For more information please contact: Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov ****************************************************** Estimate issued on 2014/02/18, 14:04:09 EST ****************************************************** Arrival time(year/month/day, hr:min UT) =2014-02-20T18:57Z (confidence level +-7 hours) Duration of the disturbance (hr) = 29.4 (confidence level +-8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re)=5.8 (under quiet conditions: Rmin(Re)=10; R_geosynchr(Re)=6.6) Kp index for three possible IMF clock angles (angle 180 gives the maximum possible estimated Kp): (Kp)_90=4 (Kp)_135=5 (Kp)_180=6 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> member number 17 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 17 2014-02-18T05:28 -28. -49. 63. 850. H CME_estimate_AFWA_17.txt Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU based on heliospheric MHD simulations. Produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC for the Air Force Weather Agency. For more information please contact: Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov ****************************************************** Estimate issued on 2014/02/18, 14:04:14 EST ****************************************************** Arrival time(year/month/day, hr:min UT) =2014-02-20T15:25Z (confidence level +-7 hours) Duration of the disturbance (hr) = 28.1 (confidence level +-8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re)=5.5 (under quiet conditions: Rmin(Re)=10; R_geosynchr(Re)=6.6) Kp index for three possible IMF clock angles (angle 180 gives the maximum possible estimated Kp): (Kp)_90=4 (Kp)_135=6 (Kp)_180=6 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> member number 18 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 18 2014-02-18T05:28 -19. -39. 63. 850. H CME_estimate_AFWA_18.txt Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU based on heliospheric MHD simulations. Produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC for the Air Force Weather Agency. For more information please contact: Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov ****************************************************** Estimate issued on 2014/02/18, 14:04:19 EST ****************************************************** Arrival time(year/month/day, hr:min UT) =2014-02-20T12:27Z (confidence level +-7 hours) Duration of the disturbance (hr) = 27.2 (confidence level +-8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re)=5.1 (under quiet conditions: Rmin(Re)=10; R_geosynchr(Re)=6.6) Kp index for three possible IMF clock angles (angle 180 gives the maximum possible estimated Kp): (Kp)_90=5 (Kp)_135=6 (Kp)_180=7 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> member number 19 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 19 2014-02-18T05:28 -19. -29. 63. 850. H CME_estimate_AFWA_19.txt Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU based on heliospheric MHD simulations. Produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC for the Air Force Weather Agency. For more information please contact: Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov ****************************************************** Estimate issued on 2014/02/18, 14:04:24 EST ****************************************************** Arrival time(year/month/day, hr:min UT) =2014-02-20T11:22Z (confidence level +-7 hours) Duration of the disturbance (hr) = 25.9 (confidence level +-8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re)=5.0 (under quiet conditions: Rmin(Re)=10; R_geosynchr(Re)=6.6) Kp index for three possible IMF clock angles (angle 180 gives the maximum possible estimated Kp): (Kp)_90=5 (Kp)_135=6 (Kp)_180=7 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> member number 20 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 20 2014-02-18T05:28 -28. -59. 43. 850. H CME_estimate_AFWA_20.txt Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU based on heliospheric MHD simulations. Produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC. For more information please contact: Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov ****************************************************** Estimate issued on 2014/02/18, 14:04:28 EST ****************************************************** CME did not hit the Earth. or CME impact is very weak. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> member number 21 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 21 2014-02-18T05:28 -23. -59. 43. 850. H CME_estimate_AFWA_21.txt Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU based on heliospheric MHD simulations. Produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC. For more information please contact: Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov ****************************************************** Estimate issued on 2014/02/18, 14:04:33 EST ****************************************************** CME did not hit the Earth. or CME impact is very weak. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> member number 22 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 22 2014-02-18T05:28 -28. -49. 43. 850. H CME_estimate_AFWA_22.txt Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU based on heliospheric MHD simulations. Produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC for the Air Force Weather Agency. For more information please contact: Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov ****************************************************** Estimate issued on 2014/02/18, 14:04:38 EST ****************************************************** Arrival time(year/month/day, hr:min UT) =2014-02-21T07:39Z (confidence level +-7 hours) Duration of the disturbance (hr) = 24.1 (confidence level +-8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re)=6.8 (under quiet conditions: Rmin(Re)=10; R_geosynchr(Re)=6.6) Kp index for three possible IMF clock angles (angle 180 gives the maximum possible estimated Kp): (Kp)_90=2 (Kp)_135=3 (Kp)_180=4 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> member number 23 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 23 2014-02-18T05:28 -19. -39. 43. 850. H CME_estimate_AFWA_23.txt Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU based on heliospheric MHD simulations. Produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC for the Air Force Weather Agency. For more information please contact: Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov ****************************************************** Estimate issued on 2014/02/18, 14:04:42 EST ****************************************************** Arrival time(year/month/day, hr:min UT) =2014-02-20T19:58Z (confidence level +-7 hours) Duration of the disturbance (hr) = 28.3 (confidence level +-8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re)=6.0 (under quiet conditions: Rmin(Re)=10; R_geosynchr(Re)=6.6) Kp index for three possible IMF clock angles (angle 180 gives the maximum possible estimated Kp): (Kp)_90=3 (Kp)_135=5 (Kp)_180=5 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> member number 24 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 24 2014-02-18T05:28 -19. -29. 43. 850. H CME_estimate_AFWA_24.txt Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU based on heliospheric MHD simulations. Produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC for the Air Force Weather Agency. For more information please contact: Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov ****************************************************** Estimate issued on 2014/02/18, 14:04:47 EST ****************************************************** Arrival time(year/month/day, hr:min UT) =2014-02-20T15:35Z (confidence level +-7 hours) Duration of the disturbance (hr) = 28.1 (confidence level +-8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re)=5.6 (under quiet conditions: Rmin(Re)=10; R_geosynchr(Re)=6.6) Kp index for three possible IMF clock angles (angle 180 gives the maximum possible estimated Kp): (Kp)_90=4 (Kp)_135=5 (Kp)_180=6 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> member number 25 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 25 2014-02-18T04:37 -28. -59. 63. 1000. H CME_estimate_AFWA_25.txt Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU based on heliospheric MHD simulations. Produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC for the Air Force Weather Agency. For more information please contact: Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov ****************************************************** Estimate issued on 2014/02/18, 14:04:52 EST ****************************************************** Arrival time(year/month/day, hr:min UT) =2014-02-20T13:36Z (confidence level +-7 hours) Duration of the disturbance (hr) = 31.2 (confidence level +-8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re)=5.9 (under quiet conditions: Rmin(Re)=10; R_geosynchr(Re)=6.6) Kp index for three possible IMF clock angles (angle 180 gives the maximum possible estimated Kp): (Kp)_90=4 (Kp)_135=5 (Kp)_180=6 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> member number 26 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 26 2014-02-18T04:37 -23. -59. 63. 1000. H CME_estimate_AFWA_26.txt Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU based on heliospheric MHD simulations. Produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC for the Air Force Weather Agency. For more information please contact: Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov ****************************************************** Estimate issued on 2014/02/18, 14:04:57 EST ****************************************************** Arrival time(year/month/day, hr:min UT) =2014-02-20T12:37Z (confidence level +-7 hours) Duration of the disturbance (hr) = 31.0 (confidence level +-8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re)=5.8 (under quiet conditions: Rmin(Re)=10; R_geosynchr(Re)=6.6) Kp index for three possible IMF clock angles (angle 180 gives the maximum possible estimated Kp): (Kp)_90=4 (Kp)_135=5 (Kp)_180=6 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> member number 27 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 27 2014-02-18T04:37 -28. -49. 63. 1000. H CME_estimate_AFWA_27.txt Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU based on heliospheric MHD simulations. Produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC for the Air Force Weather Agency. For more information please contact: Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov ****************************************************** Estimate issued on 2014/02/18, 14:05:01 EST ****************************************************** Arrival time(year/month/day, hr:min UT) =2014-02-20T09:09Z (confidence level +-7 hours) Duration of the disturbance (hr) = 29.2 (confidence level +-8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re)=5.4 (under quiet conditions: Rmin(Re)=10; R_geosynchr(Re)=6.6) Kp index for three possible IMF clock angles (angle 180 gives the maximum possible estimated Kp): (Kp)_90=4 (Kp)_135=6 (Kp)_180=6 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> member number 28 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 28 2014-02-18T04:37 -19. -39. 63. 1000. H CME_estimate_AFWA_28.txt Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU based on heliospheric MHD simulations. Produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC for the Air Force Weather Agency. For more information please contact: Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov ****************************************************** Estimate issued on 2014/02/18, 14:05:06 EST ****************************************************** Arrival time(year/month/day, hr:min UT) =2014-02-20T06:00Z (confidence level +-7 hours) Duration of the disturbance (hr) = 28.3 (confidence level +-8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re)=5.0 (under quiet conditions: Rmin(Re)=10; R_geosynchr(Re)=6.6) Kp index for three possible IMF clock angles (angle 180 gives the maximum possible estimated Kp): (Kp)_90=5 (Kp)_135=7 (Kp)_180=7 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> member number 29 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 29 2014-02-18T04:37 -19. -29. 63. 1000. H CME_estimate_AFWA_29.txt Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU based on heliospheric MHD simulations. Produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC for the Air Force Weather Agency. For more information please contact: Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov ****************************************************** Estimate issued on 2014/02/18, 14:05:11 EST ****************************************************** Arrival time(year/month/day, hr:min UT) =2014-02-20T04:55Z (confidence level +-7 hours) Duration of the disturbance (hr) = 27.0 (confidence level +-8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re)=4.9 (under quiet conditions: Rmin(Re)=10; R_geosynchr(Re)=6.6) Kp index for three possible IMF clock angles (angle 180 gives the maximum possible estimated Kp): (Kp)_90=5 (Kp)_135=7 (Kp)_180=7 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> member number 30 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 30 2014-02-18T04:37 -28. -59. 43. 1000. H CME_estimate_AFWA_30.txt Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU based on heliospheric MHD simulations. Produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC. For more information please contact: Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov ****************************************************** Estimate issued on 2014/02/18, 14:05:16 EST ****************************************************** CME did not hit the Earth. or CME impact is very weak. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> member number 31 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 31 2014-02-18T04:37 -23. -59. 43. 1000. H CME_estimate_AFWA_31.txt Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU based on heliospheric MHD simulations. Produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC. For more information please contact: Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov ****************************************************** Estimate issued on 2014/02/18, 14:05:20 EST ****************************************************** CME did not hit the Earth. or CME impact is very weak. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> member number 32 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 32 2014-02-18T04:37 -28. -49. 43. 1000. H CME_estimate_AFWA_32.txt Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU based on heliospheric MHD simulations. Produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC for the Air Force Weather Agency. For more information please contact: Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov ****************************************************** Estimate issued on 2014/02/18, 14:05:25 EST ****************************************************** Arrival time(year/month/day, hr:min UT) =2014-02-21T01:54Z (confidence level +-7 hours) Duration of the disturbance (hr) = 26.3 (confidence level +-8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re)=6.7 (under quiet conditions: Rmin(Re)=10; R_geosynchr(Re)=6.6) Kp index for three possible IMF clock angles (angle 180 gives the maximum possible estimated Kp): (Kp)_90=3 (Kp)_135=4 (Kp)_180=4 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> member number 33 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 33 2014-02-18T04:37 -19. -39. 43. 1000. H CME_estimate_AFWA_33.txt Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU based on heliospheric MHD simulations. Produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC for the Air Force Weather Agency. For more information please contact: Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov ****************************************************** Estimate issued on 2014/02/18, 14:05:30 EST ****************************************************** Arrival time(year/month/day, hr:min UT) =2014-02-20T14:14Z (confidence level +-7 hours) Duration of the disturbance (hr) = 29.9 (confidence level +-8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re)=5.9 (under quiet conditions: Rmin(Re)=10; R_geosynchr(Re)=6.6) Kp index for three possible IMF clock angles (angle 180 gives the maximum possible estimated Kp): (Kp)_90=3 (Kp)_135=5 (Kp)_180=5 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> member number 34 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 34 2014-02-18T04:37 -19. -29. 43. 1000. H CME_estimate_AFWA_34.txt Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU based on heliospheric MHD simulations. Produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC for the Air Force Weather Agency. For more information please contact: Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov ****************************************************** Estimate issued on 2014/02/18, 14:05:35 EST ****************************************************** Arrival time(year/month/day, hr:min UT) =2014-02-20T09:48Z (confidence level +-7 hours) Duration of the disturbance (hr) = 28.7 (confidence level +-8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re)=5.5 (under quiet conditions: Rmin(Re)=10; R_geosynchr(Re)=6.6) Kp index for three possible IMF clock angles (angle 180 gives the maximum possible estimated Kp): (Kp)_90=4 (Kp)_135=6 (Kp)_180=6 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> member number 35 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 35 2014-02-18T05:28 -29. -34. 53. 850. H CME_estimate_AFWA_35.txt Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU based on heliospheric MHD simulations. Produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC for the Air Force Weather Agency. For more information please contact: Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov ****************************************************** Estimate issued on 2014/02/18, 14:05:39 EST ****************************************************** Arrival time(year/month/day, hr:min UT) =2014-02-20T14:46Z (confidence level +-7 hours) Duration of the disturbance (hr) = 28.3 (confidence level +-8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re)=5.5 (under quiet conditions: Rmin(Re)=10; R_geosynchr(Re)=6.6) Kp index for three possible IMF clock angles (angle 180 gives the maximum possible estimated Kp): (Kp)_90=4 (Kp)_135=6 (Kp)_180=6 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> member number 36 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 36 2014-02-18T05:28 -24. -39. 53. 850. H CME_estimate_AFWA_36.txt Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU based on heliospheric MHD simulations. Produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC for the Air Force Weather Agency. For more information please contact: Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov ****************************************************** Estimate issued on 2014/02/18, 14:05:44 EST ****************************************************** Arrival time(year/month/day, hr:min UT) =2014-02-20T15:19Z (confidence level +-7 hours) Duration of the disturbance (hr) = 28.3 (confidence level +-8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re)=5.5 (under quiet conditions: Rmin(Re)=10; R_geosynchr(Re)=6.6) Kp index for three possible IMF clock angles (angle 180 gives the maximum possible estimated Kp): (Kp)_90=4 (Kp)_135=6 (Kp)_180=6 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> median case <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 37 2014-02-18T05:20 -24. -43. 52. 882. M CME_estimate_AFWA_median.txt Experimental ICME estimate at 1AU based on heliospheric MHD simulations. Produced by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA/GSFC for the Air Force Weather Agency. For more information please contact: Aleksandre.Taktakishvili-1@nasa.gov ****************************************************** Estimate issued on 2014/02/18, 14:05:50 EST ****************************************************** Arrival time(year/month/day, hr:min UT) =2014-02-20T16:05Z (confidence level +-7 hours) Duration of the disturbance (hr) = 29.0 (confidence level +-8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re)=5.7 (under quiet conditions: Rmin(Re)=10; R_geosynchr(Re)=6.6) Kp index for three possible IMF clock angles (angle 180 gives the maximum possible estimated Kp): (Kp)_90=4 (Kp)_135=5 (Kp)_180=6