Detailed_results_20160115_000000_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX050.txt Fri Jan 15 19:16:35 UTC 2016 >> file 2016-01-15_1_CMEs_Control_File_Saved_2016-01-15T1738Z.txt exists and has 42 lines, 42 datalines >> There are 33 data_rows and 1 cmes/m_groups >> Using CR2172, Lon 021, and Startdate 2016-01-15 >> iswatag is 20160115_000000_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX050 (1. 1st CME ID in control file) >> CME Spacecraft Start Image Date Start Image Type End Image Date End Image Type >> 2016-01-15T00:00 (1) SOHO 2016-01-15T09:30:00Z C3 2016-01-15T10:30:00Z C3 >> STEREO-A 2016-01-15T10:39:24Z COR2 Beacon 2016-01-15T15:39:24Z COR2 Beacon >> Ensemble CME modeling at SWRC is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest. Description of links: The first two links show the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median ensemble member, the third link is a histogram of predicted arrival times, and the last link is a stack plot showing the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled velocity, magnetic field, density, and temperature. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided. =================================Earth=================================== Earth (summary, more details follow below): Number_of_hits_Earth= 0 Number_of_miss_Earth=32 Percentage_hits_Earth= 0% No CME simulation in this ensemble hit Earth or the impact is weak Earth results for median input parameters: Arrival time maxKp(90,135,180) Rmin(Re) Duration (hrs) None: CME did not hit Earth or impact is weak http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-01-15_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX050/20160115_000000_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX050_anim_tim-den.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-01-15_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX050/20160115_000000_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX050_anim_tim-vel.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-01-15_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX050/20160115_000000_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX050_Earth_stack.gif ===========================other locations=============================== Spitzer: Number_of_hits_Spitz= 0 Number_of_miss_Spitz=32 Percentage_hits_Spitz= 0% No CME simulation in this ensemble hit Spitzer or the impact is weak http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-01-15_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX050/20160115_000000_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX050_Spitz_stack.gif STEREO A: Number_of_hits_STA= 0 Number_of_miss_STA=32 Percentage_hits_STA= 0% No CME simulation in this ensemble hit STEREO A or the impact is weak http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-01-15_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX050/20160115_000000_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX050_STA_stack.gif STEREO B: Number_of_hits_STB= 0 Number_of_miss_STB=32 Percentage_hits_STB= 0% No CME simulation in this ensemble hit STEREO B or the impact is weak http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-01-15_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX050/20160115_000000_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX050_STB_stack.gif Mars: Number_of_hits_Mars= 0 Number_of_miss_Mars=32 Percentage_hits_Mars= 0% No CME simulation in this ensemble hit Mars or the impact is weak http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-01-15_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX050/20160115_000000_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX050_Mars_stack.gif ========================================================================= Earth table (NCMES=1) # time (21.5Rs) Lat Lon w/2 v flag Arrival time maxKp(90,135,180) FP Rmin(Re) Duration (hrs) 1 2015-01-15T11:35 -30. 31. 55. 483. H 2 2015-01-15T11:43 -30. 31. 45. 483. H 3 2015-01-15T11:40 -30. 31. 50. 483. H 4 2015-01-15T11:30 -30. 31. 45. 500. H 5 2015-01-15T11:25 -30. 31. 45. 525. H 6 2015-01-15T11:20 -30. 31. 45. 550. H 7 2015-01-15T11:10 -30. 31. 45. 600. H 8 2015-01-15T11:30 -30. 31. 50. 500. H 9 2015-01-15T11:20 -30. 31. 50. 550. H 10 2015-01-15T11:10 -30. 31. 55. 550. H 11 2015-01-15T11:05 -30. 31. 55. 600. H 12 2015-01-15T11:50 -30. 31. 45. 450. H 13 2015-01-15T12:00 -30. 31. 45. 400. H 14 2015-01-15T11:55 -30. 31. 55. 400. H 15 2015-01-15T12:00 -30. 31. 50. 400. H 16 2015-01-15T11:50 -30. 31. 50. 450. H 17 2015-01-15T11:29 -30. 31. 50. 491. H 18 2015-01-15T11:32 -30. 35. 50. 480. H 19 2015-01-15T11:32 -30. 40. 50. 480. H 20 2015-01-15T11:30 -30. 45. 50. 483. H 21 2015-01-15T11:31 -30. 50. 50. 480. H 22 2015-01-15T11:25 -30. 50. 50. 500. H 23 2015-01-15T11:31 -30. 25. 50. 483. H 24 2015-01-15T11:25 -30. 20. 50. 480. H 25 2015-01-15T11:31 -20. 31. 50. 483. H 26 2015-01-15T11:31 -25. 31. 50. 483. H 27 2015-01-15T11:31 -35. 31. 50. 483. H 28 2015-01-15T11:31 -40. 31. 50. 483. H 29 2015-01-15T11:20 -30. 31. 50. 500. H 30 2015-01-15T11:41 -25. 25. 45. 483. H 31 2015-01-15T11:20 -20. 25. 50. 550. H 32 2015-01-15T11:43 -40. 40. 40. 483. H 33 2015-01-15T11:31 -30. 31. 50. 483. M ========== Spitzer table (NCMES=1) # time (21.5Rs) Lat Lon w/2 v flag Arrival time 1 2015-01-15T11:35 -30. 31. 55. 483. H 2 2015-01-15T11:43 -30. 31. 45. 483. H 3 2015-01-15T11:40 -30. 31. 50. 483. H 4 2015-01-15T11:30 -30. 31. 45. 500. H 5 2015-01-15T11:25 -30. 31. 45. 525. H 6 2015-01-15T11:20 -30. 31. 45. 550. H 7 2015-01-15T11:10 -30. 31. 45. 600. H 8 2015-01-15T11:30 -30. 31. 50. 500. H 9 2015-01-15T11:20 -30. 31. 50. 550. H 10 2015-01-15T11:10 -30. 31. 55. 550. H 11 2015-01-15T11:05 -30. 31. 55. 600. H 12 2015-01-15T11:50 -30. 31. 45. 450. H 13 2015-01-15T12:00 -30. 31. 45. 400. H 14 2015-01-15T11:55 -30. 31. 55. 400. H 15 2015-01-15T12:00 -30. 31. 50. 400. H 16 2015-01-15T11:50 -30. 31. 50. 450. H 17 2015-01-15T11:29 -30. 31. 50. 491. H 18 2015-01-15T11:32 -30. 35. 50. 480. H 19 2015-01-15T11:32 -30. 40. 50. 480. H 20 2015-01-15T11:30 -30. 45. 50. 483. H 21 2015-01-15T11:31 -30. 50. 50. 480. H 22 2015-01-15T11:25 -30. 50. 50. 500. H 23 2015-01-15T11:31 -30. 25. 50. 483. H 24 2015-01-15T11:25 -30. 20. 50. 480. H 25 2015-01-15T11:31 -20. 31. 50. 483. H 26 2015-01-15T11:31 -25. 31. 50. 483. H 27 2015-01-15T11:31 -35. 31. 50. 483. H 28 2015-01-15T11:31 -40. 31. 50. 483. H 29 2015-01-15T11:20 -30. 31. 50. 500. H 30 2015-01-15T11:41 -25. 25. 45. 483. H 31 2015-01-15T11:20 -20. 25. 50. 550. H 32 2015-01-15T11:43 -40. 40. 40. 483. H 33 2015-01-15T11:31 -30. 31. 50. 483. M ========== STEREO A table (NCMES=1) # time (21.5Rs) Lat Lon w/2 v flag Arrival time 1 2015-01-15T11:35 -30. 31. 55. 483. H 2 2015-01-15T11:43 -30. 31. 45. 483. H 3 2015-01-15T11:40 -30. 31. 50. 483. H 4 2015-01-15T11:30 -30. 31. 45. 500. H 5 2015-01-15T11:25 -30. 31. 45. 525. H 6 2015-01-15T11:20 -30. 31. 45. 550. H 7 2015-01-15T11:10 -30. 31. 45. 600. H 8 2015-01-15T11:30 -30. 31. 50. 500. H 9 2015-01-15T11:20 -30. 31. 50. 550. H 10 2015-01-15T11:10 -30. 31. 55. 550. H 11 2015-01-15T11:05 -30. 31. 55. 600. H 12 2015-01-15T11:50 -30. 31. 45. 450. H 13 2015-01-15T12:00 -30. 31. 45. 400. H 14 2015-01-15T11:55 -30. 31. 55. 400. H 15 2015-01-15T12:00 -30. 31. 50. 400. H 16 2015-01-15T11:50 -30. 31. 50. 450. H 17 2015-01-15T11:29 -30. 31. 50. 491. H 18 2015-01-15T11:32 -30. 35. 50. 480. H 19 2015-01-15T11:32 -30. 40. 50. 480. H 20 2015-01-15T11:30 -30. 45. 50. 483. H 21 2015-01-15T11:31 -30. 50. 50. 480. H 22 2015-01-15T11:25 -30. 50. 50. 500. H 23 2015-01-15T11:31 -30. 25. 50. 483. H 24 2015-01-15T11:25 -30. 20. 50. 480. H 25 2015-01-15T11:31 -20. 31. 50. 483. H 26 2015-01-15T11:31 -25. 31. 50. 483. H 27 2015-01-15T11:31 -35. 31. 50. 483. H 28 2015-01-15T11:31 -40. 31. 50. 483. H 29 2015-01-15T11:20 -30. 31. 50. 500. H 30 2015-01-15T11:41 -25. 25. 45. 483. H 31 2015-01-15T11:20 -20. 25. 50. 550. H 32 2015-01-15T11:43 -40. 40. 40. 483. H 33 2015-01-15T11:31 -30. 31. 50. 483. M ========== STEREO B table (NCMES=1) # time (21.5Rs) Lat Lon w/2 v flag Arrival time 1 2015-01-15T11:35 -30. 31. 55. 483. H 2 2015-01-15T11:43 -30. 31. 45. 483. H 3 2015-01-15T11:40 -30. 31. 50. 483. H 4 2015-01-15T11:30 -30. 31. 45. 500. H 5 2015-01-15T11:25 -30. 31. 45. 525. H 6 2015-01-15T11:20 -30. 31. 45. 550. H 7 2015-01-15T11:10 -30. 31. 45. 600. H 8 2015-01-15T11:30 -30. 31. 50. 500. H 9 2015-01-15T11:20 -30. 31. 50. 550. H 10 2015-01-15T11:10 -30. 31. 55. 550. H 11 2015-01-15T11:05 -30. 31. 55. 600. H 12 2015-01-15T11:50 -30. 31. 45. 450. H 13 2015-01-15T12:00 -30. 31. 45. 400. H 14 2015-01-15T11:55 -30. 31. 55. 400. H 15 2015-01-15T12:00 -30. 31. 50. 400. H 16 2015-01-15T11:50 -30. 31. 50. 450. H 17 2015-01-15T11:29 -30. 31. 50. 491. H 18 2015-01-15T11:32 -30. 35. 50. 480. H 19 2015-01-15T11:32 -30. 40. 50. 480. H 20 2015-01-15T11:30 -30. 45. 50. 483. H 21 2015-01-15T11:31 -30. 50. 50. 480. H 22 2015-01-15T11:25 -30. 50. 50. 500. H 23 2015-01-15T11:31 -30. 25. 50. 483. H 24 2015-01-15T11:25 -30. 20. 50. 480. H 25 2015-01-15T11:31 -20. 31. 50. 483. H 26 2015-01-15T11:31 -25. 31. 50. 483. H 27 2015-01-15T11:31 -35. 31. 50. 483. H 28 2015-01-15T11:31 -40. 31. 50. 483. H 29 2015-01-15T11:20 -30. 31. 50. 500. H 30 2015-01-15T11:41 -25. 25. 45. 483. H 31 2015-01-15T11:20 -20. 25. 50. 550. H 32 2015-01-15T11:43 -40. 40. 40. 483. H 33 2015-01-15T11:31 -30. 31. 50. 483. M ========== Mars table (NCMES=1) # time (21.5Rs) Lat Lon w/2 v flag Arrival time 1 2015-01-15T11:35 -30. 31. 55. 483. H 2 2015-01-15T11:43 -30. 31. 45. 483. H 3 2015-01-15T11:40 -30. 31. 50. 483. H 4 2015-01-15T11:30 -30. 31. 45. 500. H 5 2015-01-15T11:25 -30. 31. 45. 525. H 6 2015-01-15T11:20 -30. 31. 45. 550. H 7 2015-01-15T11:10 -30. 31. 45. 600. H 8 2015-01-15T11:30 -30. 31. 50. 500. H 9 2015-01-15T11:20 -30. 31. 50. 550. H 10 2015-01-15T11:10 -30. 31. 55. 550. H 11 2015-01-15T11:05 -30. 31. 55. 600. H 12 2015-01-15T11:50 -30. 31. 45. 450. H 13 2015-01-15T12:00 -30. 31. 45. 400. H 14 2015-01-15T11:55 -30. 31. 55. 400. H 15 2015-01-15T12:00 -30. 31. 50. 400. H 16 2015-01-15T11:50 -30. 31. 50. 450. H 17 2015-01-15T11:29 -30. 31. 50. 491. H 18 2015-01-15T11:32 -30. 35. 50. 480. H 19 2015-01-15T11:32 -30. 40. 50. 480. H 20 2015-01-15T11:30 -30. 45. 50. 483. H 21 2015-01-15T11:31 -30. 50. 50. 480. H 22 2015-01-15T11:25 -30. 50. 50. 500. H 23 2015-01-15T11:31 -30. 25. 50. 483. H 24 2015-01-15T11:25 -30. 20. 50. 480. H 25 2015-01-15T11:31 -20. 31. 50. 483. H 26 2015-01-15T11:31 -25. 31. 50. 483. H 27 2015-01-15T11:31 -35. 31. 50. 483. H 28 2015-01-15T11:31 -40. 31. 50. 483. H 29 2015-01-15T11:20 -30. 31. 50. 500. H 30 2015-01-15T11:41 -25. 25. 45. 483. H 31 2015-01-15T11:20 -20. 25. 50. 550. H 32 2015-01-15T11:43 -40. 40. 40. 483. H 33 2015-01-15T11:31 -30. 31. 50. 483. M ========== MERCURY table (NCMES=1) # time (21.5Rs) Lat Lon w/2 v flag Arrival time 1 2015-01-15T11:35 -30. 31. 55. 483. H 2 2015-01-15T11:43 -30. 31. 45. 483. H 3 2015-01-15T11:40 -30. 31. 50. 483. H 4 2015-01-15T11:30 -30. 31. 45. 500. H 5 2015-01-15T11:25 -30. 31. 45. 525. H 6 2015-01-15T11:20 -30. 31. 45. 550. H 7 2015-01-15T11:10 -30. 31. 45. 600. H 8 2015-01-15T11:30 -30. 31. 50. 500. H 9 2015-01-15T11:20 -30. 31. 50. 550. H 10 2015-01-15T11:10 -30. 31. 55. 550. H 11 2015-01-15T11:05 -30. 31. 55. 600. H 12 2015-01-15T11:50 -30. 31. 45. 450. H 13 2015-01-15T12:00 -30. 31. 45. 400. H 14 2015-01-15T11:55 -30. 31. 55. 400. H 15 2015-01-15T12:00 -30. 31. 50. 400. H 16 2015-01-15T11:50 -30. 31. 50. 450. H 17 2015-01-15T11:29 -30. 31. 50. 491. H 18 2015-01-15T11:32 -30. 35. 50. 480. H 19 2015-01-15T11:32 -30. 40. 50. 480. H 20 2015-01-15T11:30 -30. 45. 50. 483. H 21 2015-01-15T11:31 -30. 50. 50. 480. H 22 2015-01-15T11:25 -30. 50. 50. 500. H 23 2015-01-15T11:31 -30. 25. 50. 483. H 24 2015-01-15T11:25 -30. 20. 50. 480. H 25 2015-01-15T11:31 -20. 31. 50. 483. H 26 2015-01-15T11:31 -25. 31. 50. 483. H 27 2015-01-15T11:31 -35. 31. 50. 483. H 28 2015-01-15T11:31 -40. 31. 50. 483. H 29 2015-01-15T11:20 -30. 31. 50. 500. H 30 2015-01-15T11:41 -25. 25. 45. 483. H 31 2015-01-15T11:20 -20. 25. 50. 550. H 32 2015-01-15T11:43 -40. 40. 40. 483. H 33 2015-01-15T11:31 -30. 31. 50. 483. M MERCURY: Number_of_hits_Mess= 0 Number_of_miss_Mess=32 Percentage_hits_Mess= 0% No CME simulation in this ensemble hit MESSENGER or the impact is weak http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-01-15_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX050/20160115_000000_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX050_Mess_stack.gif ========== Venus table (NCMES=1) # time (21.5Rs) Lat Lon w/2 v flag Arrival time 1 2015-01-15T11:35 -30. 31. 55. 483. H 2 2015-01-15T11:43 -30. 31. 45. 483. H 3 2015-01-15T11:40 -30. 31. 50. 483. H 4 2015-01-15T11:30 -30. 31. 45. 500. H 5 2015-01-15T11:25 -30. 31. 45. 525. H 6 2015-01-15T11:20 -30. 31. 45. 550. H 7 2015-01-15T11:10 -30. 31. 45. 600. H 8 2015-01-15T11:30 -30. 31. 50. 500. H 9 2015-01-15T11:20 -30. 31. 50. 550. H 10 2015-01-15T11:10 -30. 31. 55. 550. H 11 2015-01-15T11:05 -30. 31. 55. 600. H 12 2015-01-15T11:50 -30. 31. 45. 450. H 13 2015-01-15T12:00 -30. 31. 45. 400. H 14 2015-01-15T11:55 -30. 31. 55. 400. H 15 2015-01-15T12:00 -30. 31. 50. 400. H 16 2015-01-15T11:50 -30. 31. 50. 450. H 17 2015-01-15T11:29 -30. 31. 50. 491. H 18 2015-01-15T11:32 -30. 35. 50. 480. H 19 2015-01-15T11:32 -30. 40. 50. 480. H 20 2015-01-15T11:30 -30. 45. 50. 483. H 21 2015-01-15T11:31 -30. 50. 50. 480. H 22 2015-01-15T11:25 -30. 50. 50. 500. H 23 2015-01-15T11:31 -30. 25. 50. 483. H 24 2015-01-15T11:25 -30. 20. 50. 480. H 25 2015-01-15T11:31 -20. 31. 50. 483. H 26 2015-01-15T11:31 -25. 31. 50. 483. H 27 2015-01-15T11:31 -35. 31. 50. 483. H 28 2015-01-15T11:31 -40. 31. 50. 483. H 29 2015-01-15T11:20 -30. 31. 50. 500. H 30 2015-01-15T11:41 -25. 25. 45. 483. H 31 2015-01-15T11:20 -20. 25. 50. 550. H 32 2015-01-15T11:43 -40. 40. 40. 483. H 33 2015-01-15T11:31 -30. 31. 50. 483. M Venus: Number_of_hits_Venus= 0 Number_of_miss_Venus=32 Percentage_hits_Venus= 0% No CME simulation in this ensemble hit Venus or the impact is weak http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-01-15_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX050/20160115_000000_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX050_Venus_stack.gif