Detailed_results_20160211_212800_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055.txt Fri Feb 12 21:33:42 UTC 2016 >> file 2016-02-12_1_CMEs_Control_File_Saved_2016-02-12T1943Z.txt exists and has 25 lines, 25 datalines >> There are 17 data_rows and 1 cmes/m_groups >> Using CR2173, Lon 011, and Startdate 2016-02-12 >> iswatag is 20160211_212800_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055 (1. 1st CME ID in control file) >> CME Spacecraft Start Image Date Start Image Type End Image Date End Image Type >> 2016-02-11T21:28:00-CME-001 (1) SOHO 2016-02-11T23:54:00Z C3 2016-02-12T00:54:00Z C3 >> Ensemble CME modeling at SWRC is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest. Description of links: The first two links show the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median ensemble member, the third link is a histogram of predicted arrival times, and the last link is a stack plot showing the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled velocity, magnetic field, density, and temperature. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided. =================================Earth=================================== Earth (summary, more details follow below): Number_of_hits_Earth=13 Number_of_miss_Earth= 3 Percentage_hits_Earth= 81.25% Earliest 2016-02-14T06:47 Average 2016-02-14T20:37 Latest 2016-02-15T06:56 Kp_90_min,Kp_90_avg,Kp_90_max = 3 3 4 Kp_135_min,Kp_135_avg,Kp_135_max= 4 4 6 Kp_180_min,Kp_180_avg,Kp_180_max= 5 5 6 Kp_all_min,Kp_all_avg,Kp_all_max= 3 4 6 Kp_all_weighted min, avg, max = 3 3 6 Sigma Kp_90,Kp_135,Kp_180,Kp_all= 0.48 0.86 0.48 1.07 ====Kp90,135,180 probability of occurrence histogram (%) 0 0 69 31 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 38 31 31 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 69 31 0 0 0 ====Kp all clock angles (equal weights) 0 0 23 23 33 21 0 0 0 ====Kp all clock angles (unequal weights 1 2 1) 0 0 17 27 33 23 0 0 0 Kp bins 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 ========================================================================================== ....................................... FLOATING POINT ................................... Kp_90fp_min,Kp_90fp_avg,Kp_90fp_max = 3.0 3.5 4.3 Kp_135fp_min,Kp_135fp_avg,Kp_135fp_max= 4.2 4.9 5.9 Kp_180fp_min,Kp_180fp_avg,Kp_180fp_max= 4.7 5.4 6.4 Kp_allfp_min,Kp_allfp_avg,Kp_allfp_max= 3.0 4.6 6.4 Kp_allfp_weighted min, avg, max = 3.0 3.8 6.4 Sigma Kp_90,Kp_135,Kp_180,Kp_all fp = 0.54 0.68 0.71 1.03 ====kp90,135,180 FP probability of occurrence histogram (%) 0 8 62 31 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 69 31 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 38 31 31 0 0 0 ====Kp FP all clock angles (equal weights) 0 3 21 46 21 10 0 0 0 ====Kp FP all clock angles (unequal weights 1 2 1) 0 2 15 52 23 8 0 0 0 Kp bins 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 ========================================================================================== Duration_min= 28.9 h Duration_avg=159.2 h Duration_max=228.2 h Standard deviation=90.3 h mp_standoff_min= 5.5 Re mp_standoff_avg= 6.0 Re mp_standoff_max= 6.3 Re Standard deviation= 0.3 Re Earth results for median input parameters: Arrival time maxKp(90,135,180) Rmin(Re) Duration (hrs) 2016-02-15T00:03 3 5 5 6.1 220.7 http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-02-12_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055/20160211_212800_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055_anim_tim-den.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-02-12_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055/20160211_212800_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055_anim_tim-vel.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-02-12_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055/20160211_212800_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055_Earth_stack.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-02-12_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055/20160211_212800_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055_arrival_Earth.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-02-12_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055/20160211_212800_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif ===========================other locations=============================== Spitzer: Number_of_hits_Spitz= 0 Number_of_miss_Spitz=16 Percentage_hits_Spitz= 0% No CME simulation in this ensemble hit Spitzer or the impact is weak http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-02-12_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055/20160211_212800_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055_Spitz_stack.gif STEREO A: Number_of_hits_STA= 0 Number_of_miss_STA=16 Percentage_hits_STA= 0% No CME simulation in this ensemble hit STEREO A or the impact is weak http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-02-12_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055/20160211_212800_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055_STA_stack.gif STEREO B: Number_of_hits_STB= 0 Number_of_miss_STB=16 Percentage_hits_STB= 0% No CME simulation in this ensemble hit STEREO B or the impact is weak http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-02-12_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055/20160211_212800_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055_STB_stack.gif Mars: Number_of_hits_Mars= 2 Number_of_miss_Mars=14 Percentage_hits_Mars= 12.50% Earliest 2016-02-16T15:11 Average 2016-02-16T17:16 Latest 2016-02-16T19:22 http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-02-12_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055/20160211_212800_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055_Mars_stack.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-02-12_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055/20160211_212800_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055_anim_tim-den.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-02-12_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055/20160211_212800_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055_anim_tim-vel.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-02-12_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055/20160211_212800_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055_arrival_Mars.gif ======================================= ### Notification information (Mars, missions near Earth) .... Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Mars. For 16 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach: - Mars between about 2016-02-16T15:11Z and 2016-02-16T19:22Z (average arrival 2016-02-16T17:16Z) for 12% of simulations. Additionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2016-02-14T06:47Z and 2016-02-15T06:56Z (average arrival 2016-02-14T20:37Z) for 81% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 79% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-5 range (below minor to minor). Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event: http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-02-12_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055/20160211_212800_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055_anim_tim-den.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-02-12_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055/20160211_212800_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055_arrival_Earth.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-02-12_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055/20160211_212800_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055_Earth_stack.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-02-12_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055/20160211_212800_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-02-12_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055/20160211_212800_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055_arrival_Mars.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-02-12_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055/20160211_212800_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055_Mars_stack.gif ## Notes: Ensemble CME modeling at SWRC is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest. Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided. For the full details of the modeled event, please go here: http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-02-12_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055/Detailed_results_20160211_212800_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055.txt ### ========================================================================= Earth table (NCMES=1) # time (21.5Rs) Lat Lon w/2 v flag Arrival time maxKp(90,135,180) FP Rmin(Re) Duration (hrs) 1 2016-02-12T04:56 6. 8. 40. 420. H 2 2016-02-12T02:04 11. 10. 45. 439. H 2016-02-15T04:53 3 4 5 2.98 4.24 4.68 6.3 212.1 3 2016-02-12T01:54 8. 12. 45. 743. H 2016-02-14T10:47 4 6 6 4.31 5.93 6.45 5.5 29.2 4 2016-02-12T05:33 9. 7. 34. 520. H 2016-02-15T02:34 3 4 5 3.18 4.50 4.96 6.2 214.8 5 2016-02-12T04:45 7. 9. 39. 545. H 2016-02-14T23:37 3 5 5 3.43 4.84 5.32 6.0 220.5 6 2016-02-12T04:28 14. 5. 36. 480. H 2016-02-15T04:36 3 4 5 3.04 4.32 4.77 6.3 212.5 7 2016-02-12T05:52 9. 9. 30. 440. H 8 2016-02-12T07:28 4. 7. 38. 391. H 9 2016-02-12T00:31 2. 5. 36. 829. H 2016-02-14T06:58 4 6 6 4.20 5.81 6.32 5.6 29.4 10 2016-02-12T03:28 3. 14. 34. 548. H 2016-02-14T23:36 3 5 5 3.22 4.55 5.02 6.1 221.6 11 2016-02-12T02:34 12. 3. 28. 702. H 2016-02-14T18:53 3 5 5 3.39 4.79 5.27 6.1 228.2 12 2016-02-12T02:45 10. 6. 30. 589. H 2016-02-14T22:05 3 5 5 3.24 4.59 5.06 6.2 223.0 13 2016-02-12T03:09 6. 11. 42. 750. H 2016-02-14T11:44 4 6 6 4.23 5.84 6.35 5.6 29.8 14 2016-02-12T05:36 14. 3. 45. 450. H 2016-02-15T06:56 3 4 5 3.07 4.35 4.81 6.3 207.5 15 2016-02-12T04:56 6. 9. 40. 470. H 2016-02-15T04:42 3 4 5 3.10 4.39 4.85 6.3 212.3 16 2016-02-12T00:28 9. 10. 39. 860. H 2016-02-14T06:47 4 6 6 4.31 5.94 6.45 5.5 28.9 17 2016-02-12T03:58 9. 9. 39. 532. M 2016-02-15T00:03 3 5 5 4.31 5.94 6.45 6.1 220.7 ========== Spitzer table (NCMES=1) # time (21.5Rs) Lat Lon w/2 v flag Arrival time 1 2016-02-12T04:56 6. 8. 40. 420. H 2 2016-02-12T02:04 11. 10. 45. 439. H 3 2016-02-12T01:54 8. 12. 45. 743. H 4 2016-02-12T05:33 9. 7. 34. 520. H 5 2016-02-12T04:45 7. 9. 39. 545. H 6 2016-02-12T04:28 14. 5. 36. 480. H 7 2016-02-12T05:52 9. 9. 30. 440. H 8 2016-02-12T07:28 4. 7. 38. 391. H 9 2016-02-12T00:31 2. 5. 36. 829. H 10 2016-02-12T03:28 3. 14. 34. 548. H 11 2016-02-12T02:34 12. 3. 28. 702. H 12 2016-02-12T02:45 10. 6. 30. 589. H 13 2016-02-12T03:09 6. 11. 42. 750. H 14 2016-02-12T05:36 14. 3. 45. 450. H 15 2016-02-12T04:56 6. 9. 40. 470. H 16 2016-02-12T00:28 9. 10. 39. 860. H 17 2016-02-12T03:58 9. 9. 39. 532. M ========== STEREO A table (NCMES=1) # time (21.5Rs) Lat Lon w/2 v flag Arrival time 1 2016-02-12T04:56 6. 8. 40. 420. H 2 2016-02-12T02:04 11. 10. 45. 439. H 3 2016-02-12T01:54 8. 12. 45. 743. H 4 2016-02-12T05:33 9. 7. 34. 520. H 5 2016-02-12T04:45 7. 9. 39. 545. H 6 2016-02-12T04:28 14. 5. 36. 480. H 7 2016-02-12T05:52 9. 9. 30. 440. H 8 2016-02-12T07:28 4. 7. 38. 391. H 9 2016-02-12T00:31 2. 5. 36. 829. H 10 2016-02-12T03:28 3. 14. 34. 548. H 11 2016-02-12T02:34 12. 3. 28. 702. H 12 2016-02-12T02:45 10. 6. 30. 589. H 13 2016-02-12T03:09 6. 11. 42. 750. H 14 2016-02-12T05:36 14. 3. 45. 450. H 15 2016-02-12T04:56 6. 9. 40. 470. H 16 2016-02-12T00:28 9. 10. 39. 860. H 17 2016-02-12T03:58 9. 9. 39. 532. M ========== STEREO B table (NCMES=1) # time (21.5Rs) Lat Lon w/2 v flag Arrival time 1 2016-02-12T04:56 6. 8. 40. 420. H 2 2016-02-12T02:04 11. 10. 45. 439. H 3 2016-02-12T01:54 8. 12. 45. 743. H 4 2016-02-12T05:33 9. 7. 34. 520. H 5 2016-02-12T04:45 7. 9. 39. 545. H 6 2016-02-12T04:28 14. 5. 36. 480. H 7 2016-02-12T05:52 9. 9. 30. 440. H 8 2016-02-12T07:28 4. 7. 38. 391. H 9 2016-02-12T00:31 2. 5. 36. 829. H 10 2016-02-12T03:28 3. 14. 34. 548. H 11 2016-02-12T02:34 12. 3. 28. 702. H 12 2016-02-12T02:45 10. 6. 30. 589. H 13 2016-02-12T03:09 6. 11. 42. 750. H 14 2016-02-12T05:36 14. 3. 45. 450. H 15 2016-02-12T04:56 6. 9. 40. 470. H 16 2016-02-12T00:28 9. 10. 39. 860. H 17 2016-02-12T03:58 9. 9. 39. 532. M ========== Mars table (NCMES=1) # time (21.5Rs) Lat Lon w/2 v flag Arrival time 1 2016-02-12T04:56 6. 8. 40. 420. H 2 2016-02-12T02:04 11. 10. 45. 439. H 3 2016-02-12T01:54 8. 12. 45. 743. H 2016-02-16T15:11 4 2016-02-12T05:33 9. 7. 34. 520. H 5 2016-02-12T04:45 7. 9. 39. 545. H 6 2016-02-12T04:28 14. 5. 36. 480. H 7 2016-02-12T05:52 9. 9. 30. 440. H 8 2016-02-12T07:28 4. 7. 38. 391. H 9 2016-02-12T00:31 2. 5. 36. 829. H 10 2016-02-12T03:28 3. 14. 34. 548. H 11 2016-02-12T02:34 12. 3. 28. 702. H 12 2016-02-12T02:45 10. 6. 30. 589. H 13 2016-02-12T03:09 6. 11. 42. 750. H 2016-02-16T19:22 14 2016-02-12T05:36 14. 3. 45. 450. H 15 2016-02-12T04:56 6. 9. 40. 470. H 16 2016-02-12T00:28 9. 10. 39. 860. H 17 2016-02-12T03:58 9. 9. 39. 532. M ========== MERCURY table (NCMES=1) # time (21.5Rs) Lat Lon w/2 v flag Arrival time 1 2016-02-12T04:56 6. 8. 40. 420. H 2 2016-02-12T02:04 11. 10. 45. 439. H 3 2016-02-12T01:54 8. 12. 45. 743. H 4 2016-02-12T05:33 9. 7. 34. 520. H 5 2016-02-12T04:45 7. 9. 39. 545. H 6 2016-02-12T04:28 14. 5. 36. 480. H 7 2016-02-12T05:52 9. 9. 30. 440. H 8 2016-02-12T07:28 4. 7. 38. 391. H 9 2016-02-12T00:31 2. 5. 36. 829. H 10 2016-02-12T03:28 3. 14. 34. 548. H 11 2016-02-12T02:34 12. 3. 28. 702. H 12 2016-02-12T02:45 10. 6. 30. 589. H 13 2016-02-12T03:09 6. 11. 42. 750. H 14 2016-02-12T05:36 14. 3. 45. 450. H 15 2016-02-12T04:56 6. 9. 40. 470. H 16 2016-02-12T00:28 9. 10. 39. 860. H 17 2016-02-12T03:58 9. 9. 39. 532. M MERCURY: Number_of_hits_Mess= 0 Number_of_miss_Mess=16 Percentage_hits_Mess= 0% No CME simulation in this ensemble hit MESSENGER or the impact is weak http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-02-12_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055/20160211_212800_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055_Mess_stack.gif ========== Venus table (NCMES=1) # time (21.5Rs) Lat Lon w/2 v flag Arrival time 1 2016-02-12T04:56 6. 8. 40. 420. H 2 2016-02-12T02:04 11. 10. 45. 439. H 3 2016-02-12T01:54 8. 12. 45. 743. H 4 2016-02-12T05:33 9. 7. 34. 520. H 5 2016-02-12T04:45 7. 9. 39. 545. H 6 2016-02-12T04:28 14. 5. 36. 480. H 7 2016-02-12T05:52 9. 9. 30. 440. H 8 2016-02-12T07:28 4. 7. 38. 391. H 9 2016-02-12T00:31 2. 5. 36. 829. H 10 2016-02-12T03:28 3. 14. 34. 548. H 11 2016-02-12T02:34 12. 3. 28. 702. H 12 2016-02-12T02:45 10. 6. 30. 589. H 13 2016-02-12T03:09 6. 11. 42. 750. H 14 2016-02-12T05:36 14. 3. 45. 450. H 15 2016-02-12T04:56 6. 9. 40. 470. H 16 2016-02-12T00:28 9. 10. 39. 860. H 17 2016-02-12T03:58 9. 9. 39. 532. M Venus: Number_of_hits_Venus= 0 Number_of_miss_Venus=16 Percentage_hits_Venus= 0% No CME simulation in this ensemble hit Venus or the impact is weak http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2016-02-12_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055/20160211_212800_ncmes1_sims16_HILOX055_Venus_stack.gif