Detailed_results_20201129_132500_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX072.txt Tue Dec 1 00:01:51 UTC 2020 >> file 2020-11-29_1_CMEs_Control_File_Saved_2020-11-30T2029Z.txt exists and has 58 lines, 58 datalines >> There are 49 data_rows and 1 cmes/m_groups >> Using CR2238, Lon 271, and Startdate 2020-11-30 >> iswatag is 20201129_132500_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX072 (1. 1st CME ID in control file) >> CME Spacecraft Start Image Date Start Image Type End Image Date End Image Type >> 2020-11-29T13:25:00-CME-001 (1) SOHO 2020-11-29T13:54:00Z C3 2020-11-29T14:42:00Z C3 >> STEREO-A 2020-11-29T13:54:24Z COR2 Beacon 2020-11-29T14:54:24Z COR2 Beacon >> Ensemble CME modeling at SWRC is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest. Description of links: The first two links show the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median ensemble member, the third link is a histogram of predicted arrival times, and the last link is a stack plot showing the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled velocity, magnetic field, density, and temperature. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided. =================================Earth=================================== Earth (summary, more details follow below): Number_of_hits_Earth= 0 Number_of_miss_Earth=48 Percentage_hits_Earth= 0% No CME simulation in this ensemble hit Earth or the impact is weak Earth results for median input parameters: Arrival time maxKp(90,135,180) Rmin(Re) Duration (hrs) None: CME did not hit Earth or impact is weak https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2020-11-30_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX072/20201129_132500_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX072_anim_tim-den.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2020-11-30_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX072/20201129_132500_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX072_anim_tim-vel.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2020-11-30_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX072/20201129_132500_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX072_Earth_stack.gif ===========================other locations=============================== STEREO A: Number_of_hits_STA=48 Number_of_miss_STA= 0 Percentage_hits_STA=100.00% Earliest 2020-12-01T09:22 Average 2020-12-01T13:38 Latest 2020-12-01T20:28 Median input arrival 2020-12-01T12:44 https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2020-11-30_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX072/20201129_132500_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX072_STA_stack.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2020-11-30_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX072/20201129_132500_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX072_anim_Stereo_A_tim-den.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2020-11-30_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX072/20201129_132500_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX072_anim_Stereo_A_tim-vel.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2020-11-30_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX072/20201129_132500_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX072_anim_Stereo_A_tim-pdyn.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2020-11-30_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX072/20201129_132500_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX072_arrival_STA.gif STEREO B: Number_of_hits_STB= 0 Number_of_miss_STB=48 Percentage_hits_STB= 0% No CME simulation in this ensemble hit STEREO B or the impact is weak https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2020-11-30_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX072/20201129_132500_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX072_STB_stack.gif Mars: Number_of_hits_Mars= 9 Number_of_miss_Mars=39 Percentage_hits_Mars= 18.75% Earliest 2020-12-03T03:38 Average 2020-12-03T14:36 Latest 2020-12-04T00:15 https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2020-11-30_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX072/20201129_132500_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX072_Mars_stack.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2020-11-30_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX072/20201129_132500_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX072_anim_tim-den.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2020-11-30_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX072/20201129_132500_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX072_anim_tim-vel.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2020-11-30_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX072/20201129_132500_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX072_arrival_Mars.gif ======================================= ### Notification information (STEREO A, Mars) .... Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A and Mars. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach: - STEREO A between about 2020-12-01T09:22Z and 2020-12-01T20:28Z (average arrival 2020-12-01T13:38Z) for 100% of simulations. - Mars between about 2020-12-03T03:38Z and 2020-12-04T00:15Z (average arrival 2020-12-03T14:36Z) for 18% of simulations. Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2020-11-30_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX072/20201129_132500_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX072_anim_tim-den.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2020-11-30_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX072/20201129_132500_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX072_arrival_Mars.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2020-11-30_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX072/20201129_132500_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX072_Mars_stack.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2020-11-30_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX072/20201129_132500_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX072_arrival_STA.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2020-11-30_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX072/20201129_132500_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX072_STA_stack.gif ## Notes: Ensemble CME modeling at SWRC is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest. Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided. For the full details of the modeled event, please go here: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2020-11-30_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX072/Detailed_results_20201129_132500_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX072.txt ### ========================================================================= Earth table (NCMES=1) # time (21.5Rs) Lat Lon w/2 v flag Arrival time maxKp(90,135,180) FP Rmin(Re) Duration (hrs) 1 2020-11-29T15:37 -11. -108. 61. 1592. C 2 2020-11-29T15:40 -1. -114. 59. 1545. C 3 2020-11-29T15:44 -14. -111. 57. 1484. C 4 2020-11-29T15:42 -9. -116. 64. 1520. C 5 2020-11-29T15:47 -10. -109. 62. 1402. C 6 2020-11-29T15:43 -14. -111. 58. 1487. C 7 2020-11-29T15:58 -11. -114. 58. 1313. C 8 2020-11-29T15:52 -5. -119. 58. 1383. C 9 2020-11-29T15:43 -7. -102. 56. 1341. H 10 2020-11-29T15:58 -13. -97. 60. 1355. H 11 2020-11-29T15:53 -11. -101. 58. 1384. H 12 2020-11-29T15:47 -8. -93. 61. 1356. H 13 2020-11-29T15:34 -12. -95. 59. 1396. H 14 2020-11-29T15:31 -8. -89. 61. 1403. H 15 2020-11-29T15:35 -11. -97. 59. 1339. H 16 2020-11-29T15:39 -7. -88. 63. 1279. H 17 2020-11-29T16:03 -9. -85. 59. 1196. H 18 2020-11-29T15:53 -8. -83. 51. 1396. H 19 2020-11-29T15:45 -4. -79. 54. 1232. H 20 2020-11-29T16:09 -6. -90. 61. 1172. H 21 2020-11-29T15:48 -6. -80. 61. 1282. H 22 2020-11-29T15:59 -10. -78. 55. 1288. H 23 2020-11-29T16:00 -6. -75. 58. 1336. H 24 2020-11-29T15:43 -8. -103. 56. 1391. H 25 2020-11-29T15:43 -8. -105. 57. 1256. H 26 2020-11-29T15:43 -7. -96. 57. 1388. H 27 2020-11-29T15:32 -8. -88. 57. 1352. H 28 2020-11-29T15:58 -7. -96. 54. 1132. H 29 2020-11-29T15:38 -7. -92. 56. 1374. H 30 2020-11-29T15:36 -7. -99. 63. 1221. H 31 2020-11-29T15:30 -9. -98. 58. 1356. H 32 2020-11-29T15:31 -9. -95. 57. 1323. H 33 2020-11-29T15:21 -7. -97. 56. 1486. H 34 2020-11-29T15:23 -7. -93. 55. 1467. H 35 2020-11-29T15:22 -7. -95. 55. 1442. H 36 2020-11-29T15:28 -9. -101. 58. 1449. H 37 2020-11-29T15:29 -9. -101. 59. 1451. H 38 2020-11-29T15:31 -8. -103. 53. 1456. H 39 2020-11-29T15:53 -9. -105. 62. 1234. H 40 2020-11-29T15:52 -4. -106. 54. 1226. H 41 2020-11-29T15:48 -5. -105. 60. 1207. H 42 2020-11-29T15:40 -13. -108. 54. 1308. H 43 2020-11-29T15:54 -12. -107. 56. 1289. H 44 2020-11-29T15:55 -10. -106. 57. 1307. H 45 2020-11-29T16:10 -3. -101. 62. 1126. H 46 2020-11-29T15:52 -4. -99. 59. 1259. H 47 2020-11-29T15:48 -2. -98. 58. 1206. H 48 2020-11-29T15:40 -8. -96. 59. 1300. H 49 2020-11-29T15:43 -8. -99. 58. 1347. M ========== ========== STEREO A table (NCMES=1) # time (21.5Rs) Lat Lon w/2 v flag Arrival time 1 2020-11-29T15:37 -11. -108. 61. 1592. C 2020-12-01T09:22 2 2020-11-29T15:40 -1. -114. 59. 1545. C 2020-12-01T12:09 3 2020-11-29T15:44 -14. -111. 57. 1484. C 2020-12-01T15:35 4 2020-11-29T15:42 -9. -116. 64. 1520. C 2020-12-01T11:48 5 2020-11-29T15:47 -10. -109. 62. 1402. C 2020-12-01T12:47 6 2020-11-29T15:43 -14. -111. 58. 1487. C 2020-12-01T14:48 7 2020-11-29T15:58 -11. -114. 58. 1313. C 2020-12-01T19:42 8 2020-11-29T15:52 -5. -119. 58. 1383. C 2020-12-01T20:28 9 2020-11-29T15:43 -7. -102. 56. 1341. H 2020-12-01T14:09 10 2020-11-29T15:58 -13. -97. 60. 1355. H 2020-12-01T12:20 11 2020-11-29T15:53 -11. -101. 58. 1384. H 2020-12-01T12:51 12 2020-11-29T15:47 -8. -93. 61. 1356. H 2020-12-01T10:59 13 2020-11-29T15:34 -12. -95. 59. 1396. H 2020-12-01T11:00 14 2020-11-29T15:31 -8. -89. 61. 1403. H 2020-12-01T09:26 15 2020-11-29T15:35 -11. -97. 59. 1339. H 2020-12-01T12:28 16 2020-11-29T15:39 -7. -88. 63. 1279. H 2020-12-01T11:44 17 2020-11-29T16:03 -9. -85. 59. 1196. H 2020-12-01T14:42 18 2020-11-29T15:53 -8. -83. 51. 1396. H 2020-12-01T11:43 19 2020-11-29T15:45 -4. -79. 54. 1232. H 2020-12-01T13:55 20 2020-11-29T16:09 -6. -90. 61. 1172. H 2020-12-01T15:12 21 2020-11-29T15:48 -6. -80. 61. 1282. H 2020-12-01T11:39 22 2020-11-29T15:59 -10. -78. 55. 1288. H 2020-12-01T12:55 23 2020-11-29T16:00 -6. -75. 58. 1336. H 2020-12-01T10:59 24 2020-11-29T15:43 -8. -103. 56. 1391. H 2020-12-01T13:28 25 2020-11-29T15:43 -8. -105. 57. 1256. H 2020-12-01T16:35 26 2020-11-29T15:43 -7. -96. 57. 1388. H 2020-12-01T11:35 27 2020-11-29T15:32 -8. -88. 57. 1352. H 2020-12-01T11:12 28 2020-11-29T15:58 -7. -96. 54. 1132. H 2020-12-01T18:44 29 2020-11-29T15:38 -7. -92. 56. 1374. H 2020-12-01T11:32 30 2020-11-29T15:36 -7. -99. 63. 1221. H 2020-12-01T14:08 31 2020-11-29T15:30 -9. -98. 58. 1356. H 2020-12-01T12:16 32 2020-11-29T15:31 -9. -95. 57. 1323. H 2020-12-01T12:48 33 2020-11-29T15:21 -7. -97. 56. 1486. H 2020-12-01T09:53 34 2020-11-29T15:23 -7. -93. 55. 1467. H 2020-12-01T09:55 35 2020-11-29T15:22 -7. -95. 55. 1442. H 2020-12-01T10:40 36 2020-11-29T15:28 -9. -101. 58. 1449. H 2020-12-01T10:58 37 2020-11-29T15:29 -9. -101. 59. 1451. H 2020-12-01T10:36 38 2020-11-29T15:31 -8. -103. 53. 1456. H 2020-12-01T13:27 39 2020-11-29T15:53 -9. -105. 62. 1234. H 2020-12-01T15:27 40 2020-11-29T15:52 -4. -106. 54. 1226. H 2020-12-01T18:49 41 2020-11-29T15:48 -5. -105. 60. 1207. H 2020-12-01T16:25 42 2020-11-29T15:40 -13. -108. 54. 1308. H 2020-12-01T19:33 43 2020-11-29T15:54 -12. -107. 56. 1289. H 2020-12-01T18:03 44 2020-11-29T15:55 -10. -106. 57. 1307. H 2020-12-01T16:12 45 2020-11-29T16:10 -3. -101. 62. 1126. H 2020-12-01T17:19 46 2020-11-29T15:52 -4. -99. 59. 1259. H 2020-12-01T14:15 47 2020-11-29T15:48 -2. -98. 58. 1206. H 2020-12-01T15:23 48 2020-11-29T15:40 -8. -96. 59. 1300. H 2020-12-01T12:59 49 2020-11-29T15:43 -8. -99. 58. 1347. M 2020-12-01T12:44 ========== STEREO B table (NCMES=1) # time (21.5Rs) Lat Lon w/2 v flag Arrival time 1 2020-11-29T15:37 -11. -108. 61. 1592. C 2 2020-11-29T15:40 -1. -114. 59. 1545. C 3 2020-11-29T15:44 -14. -111. 57. 1484. C 4 2020-11-29T15:42 -9. -116. 64. 1520. C 5 2020-11-29T15:47 -10. -109. 62. 1402. C 6 2020-11-29T15:43 -14. -111. 58. 1487. C 7 2020-11-29T15:58 -11. -114. 58. 1313. C 8 2020-11-29T15:52 -5. -119. 58. 1383. C 9 2020-11-29T15:43 -7. -102. 56. 1341. H 10 2020-11-29T15:58 -13. -97. 60. 1355. H 11 2020-11-29T15:53 -11. -101. 58. 1384. H 12 2020-11-29T15:47 -8. -93. 61. 1356. H 13 2020-11-29T15:34 -12. -95. 59. 1396. H 14 2020-11-29T15:31 -8. -89. 61. 1403. H 15 2020-11-29T15:35 -11. -97. 59. 1339. H 16 2020-11-29T15:39 -7. -88. 63. 1279. H 17 2020-11-29T16:03 -9. -85. 59. 1196. H 18 2020-11-29T15:53 -8. -83. 51. 1396. H 19 2020-11-29T15:45 -4. -79. 54. 1232. H 20 2020-11-29T16:09 -6. -90. 61. 1172. H 21 2020-11-29T15:48 -6. -80. 61. 1282. H 22 2020-11-29T15:59 -10. -78. 55. 1288. H 23 2020-11-29T16:00 -6. -75. 58. 1336. H 24 2020-11-29T15:43 -8. -103. 56. 1391. H 25 2020-11-29T15:43 -8. -105. 57. 1256. H 26 2020-11-29T15:43 -7. -96. 57. 1388. H 27 2020-11-29T15:32 -8. -88. 57. 1352. H 28 2020-11-29T15:58 -7. -96. 54. 1132. H 29 2020-11-29T15:38 -7. -92. 56. 1374. H 30 2020-11-29T15:36 -7. -99. 63. 1221. H 31 2020-11-29T15:30 -9. -98. 58. 1356. H 32 2020-11-29T15:31 -9. -95. 57. 1323. H 33 2020-11-29T15:21 -7. -97. 56. 1486. H 34 2020-11-29T15:23 -7. -93. 55. 1467. H 35 2020-11-29T15:22 -7. -95. 55. 1442. H 36 2020-11-29T15:28 -9. -101. 58. 1449. H 37 2020-11-29T15:29 -9. -101. 59. 1451. H 38 2020-11-29T15:31 -8. -103. 53. 1456. H 39 2020-11-29T15:53 -9. -105. 62. 1234. H 40 2020-11-29T15:52 -4. -106. 54. 1226. H 41 2020-11-29T15:48 -5. -105. 60. 1207. H 42 2020-11-29T15:40 -13. -108. 54. 1308. H 43 2020-11-29T15:54 -12. -107. 56. 1289. H 44 2020-11-29T15:55 -10. -106. 57. 1307. H 45 2020-11-29T16:10 -3. -101. 62. 1126. H 46 2020-11-29T15:52 -4. -99. 59. 1259. H 47 2020-11-29T15:48 -2. -98. 58. 1206. H 48 2020-11-29T15:40 -8. -96. 59. 1300. H 49 2020-11-29T15:43 -8. -99. 58. 1347. M ========== Mars table (NCMES=1) # time (21.5Rs) Lat Lon w/2 v flag Arrival time 1 2020-11-29T15:37 -11. -108. 61. 1592. C 2 2020-11-29T15:40 -1. -114. 59. 1545. C 3 2020-11-29T15:44 -14. -111. 57. 1484. C 4 2020-11-29T15:42 -9. -116. 64. 1520. C 5 2020-11-29T15:47 -10. -109. 62. 1402. C 6 2020-11-29T15:43 -14. -111. 58. 1487. C 7 2020-11-29T15:58 -11. -114. 58. 1313. C 8 2020-11-29T15:52 -5. -119. 58. 1383. C 9 2020-11-29T15:43 -7. -102. 56. 1341. H 10 2020-11-29T15:58 -13. -97. 60. 1355. H 11 2020-11-29T15:53 -11. -101. 58. 1384. H 12 2020-11-29T15:47 -8. -93. 61. 1356. H 13 2020-11-29T15:34 -12. -95. 59. 1396. H 14 2020-11-29T15:31 -8. -89. 61. 1403. H 2020-12-03T13:01 15 2020-11-29T15:35 -11. -97. 59. 1339. H 16 2020-11-29T15:39 -7. -88. 63. 1279. H 2020-12-03T12:42 17 2020-11-29T16:03 -9. -85. 59. 1196. H 2020-12-03T19:44 18 2020-11-29T15:53 -8. -83. 51. 1396. H 19 2020-11-29T15:45 -4. -79. 54. 1232. H 2020-12-03T16:52 20 2020-11-29T16:09 -6. -90. 61. 1172. H 2020-12-04T00:15 21 2020-11-29T15:48 -6. -80. 61. 1282. H 2020-12-03T06:23 22 2020-11-29T15:59 -10. -78. 55. 1288. H 2020-12-03T13:27 23 2020-11-29T16:00 -6. -75. 58. 1336. H 2020-12-03T03:38 24 2020-11-29T15:43 -8. -103. 56. 1391. H 25 2020-11-29T15:43 -8. -105. 57. 1256. H 26 2020-11-29T15:43 -7. -96. 57. 1388. H 27 2020-11-29T15:32 -8. -88. 57. 1352. H 2020-12-03T21:26 28 2020-11-29T15:58 -7. -96. 54. 1132. H 29 2020-11-29T15:38 -7. -92. 56. 1374. H 30 2020-11-29T15:36 -7. -99. 63. 1221. H 31 2020-11-29T15:30 -9. -98. 58. 1356. H 32 2020-11-29T15:31 -9. -95. 57. 1323. H 33 2020-11-29T15:21 -7. -97. 56. 1486. H 34 2020-11-29T15:23 -7. -93. 55. 1467. H 35 2020-11-29T15:22 -7. -95. 55. 1442. H 36 2020-11-29T15:28 -9. -101. 58. 1449. H 37 2020-11-29T15:29 -9. -101. 59. 1451. H 38 2020-11-29T15:31 -8. -103. 53. 1456. H 39 2020-11-29T15:53 -9. -105. 62. 1234. H 40 2020-11-29T15:52 -4. -106. 54. 1226. H 41 2020-11-29T15:48 -5. -105. 60. 1207. H 42 2020-11-29T15:40 -13. -108. 54. 1308. H 43 2020-11-29T15:54 -12. -107. 56. 1289. H 44 2020-11-29T15:55 -10. -106. 57. 1307. H 45 2020-11-29T16:10 -3. -101. 62. 1126. H 46 2020-11-29T15:52 -4. -99. 59. 1259. H 47 2020-11-29T15:48 -2. -98. 58. 1206. H 48 2020-11-29T15:40 -8. -96. 59. 1300. H 49 2020-11-29T15:43 -8. -99. 58. 1347. M ========== MERCURY table (NCMES=1) # time (21.5Rs) Lat Lon w/2 v flag Arrival time 1 2020-11-29T15:37 -11. -108. 61. 1592. C 2 2020-11-29T15:40 -1. -114. 59. 1545. C 3 2020-11-29T15:44 -14. -111. 57. 1484. C 4 2020-11-29T15:42 -9. -116. 64. 1520. C 5 2020-11-29T15:47 -10. -109. 62. 1402. C 6 2020-11-29T15:43 -14. -111. 58. 1487. C 7 2020-11-29T15:58 -11. -114. 58. 1313. C 8 2020-11-29T15:52 -5. -119. 58. 1383. C 9 2020-11-29T15:43 -7. -102. 56. 1341. H 10 2020-11-29T15:58 -13. -97. 60. 1355. H 11 2020-11-29T15:53 -11. -101. 58. 1384. H 12 2020-11-29T15:47 -8. -93. 61. 1356. H 13 2020-11-29T15:34 -12. -95. 59. 1396. H 14 2020-11-29T15:31 -8. -89. 61. 1403. H 15 2020-11-29T15:35 -11. -97. 59. 1339. H 16 2020-11-29T15:39 -7. -88. 63. 1279. H 17 2020-11-29T16:03 -9. -85. 59. 1196. H 18 2020-11-29T15:53 -8. -83. 51. 1396. H 19 2020-11-29T15:45 -4. -79. 54. 1232. H 20 2020-11-29T16:09 -6. -90. 61. 1172. H 21 2020-11-29T15:48 -6. -80. 61. 1282. H 22 2020-11-29T15:59 -10. -78. 55. 1288. H 23 2020-11-29T16:00 -6. -75. 58. 1336. H 24 2020-11-29T15:43 -8. -103. 56. 1391. H 25 2020-11-29T15:43 -8. -105. 57. 1256. H 26 2020-11-29T15:43 -7. -96. 57. 1388. H 27 2020-11-29T15:32 -8. -88. 57. 1352. H 28 2020-11-29T15:58 -7. -96. 54. 1132. H 29 2020-11-29T15:38 -7. -92. 56. 1374. H 30 2020-11-29T15:36 -7. -99. 63. 1221. H 31 2020-11-29T15:30 -9. -98. 58. 1356. H 32 2020-11-29T15:31 -9. -95. 57. 1323. H 33 2020-11-29T15:21 -7. -97. 56. 1486. H 34 2020-11-29T15:23 -7. -93. 55. 1467. H 35 2020-11-29T15:22 -7. -95. 55. 1442. H 36 2020-11-29T15:28 -9. -101. 58. 1449. H 37 2020-11-29T15:29 -9. -101. 59. 1451. H 38 2020-11-29T15:31 -8. -103. 53. 1456. H 39 2020-11-29T15:53 -9. -105. 62. 1234. H 40 2020-11-29T15:52 -4. -106. 54. 1226. H 41 2020-11-29T15:48 -5. -105. 60. 1207. H 42 2020-11-29T15:40 -13. -108. 54. 1308. H 43 2020-11-29T15:54 -12. -107. 56. 1289. H 44 2020-11-29T15:55 -10. -106. 57. 1307. H 45 2020-11-29T16:10 -3. -101. 62. 1126. H 46 2020-11-29T15:52 -4. -99. 59. 1259. H 47 2020-11-29T15:48 -2. -98. 58. 1206. H 48 2020-11-29T15:40 -8. -96. 59. 1300. H 49 2020-11-29T15:43 -8. -99. 58. 1347. M MERCURY: Number_of_hits_Mess= 0 Number_of_miss_Mess=48 Percentage_hits_Mess= 0% No CME simulation in this ensemble hit MESSENGER or the impact is weak https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2020-11-30_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX072/20201129_132500_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX072_Mess_stack.gif ========== Venus table (NCMES=1) # time (21.5Rs) Lat Lon w/2 v flag Arrival time 1 2020-11-29T15:37 -11. -108. 61. 1592. C 2 2020-11-29T15:40 -1. -114. 59. 1545. C 3 2020-11-29T15:44 -14. -111. 57. 1484. C 4 2020-11-29T15:42 -9. -116. 64. 1520. C 5 2020-11-29T15:47 -10. -109. 62. 1402. C 6 2020-11-29T15:43 -14. -111. 58. 1487. C 7 2020-11-29T15:58 -11. -114. 58. 1313. C 8 2020-11-29T15:52 -5. -119. 58. 1383. C 9 2020-11-29T15:43 -7. -102. 56. 1341. H 10 2020-11-29T15:58 -13. -97. 60. 1355. H 11 2020-11-29T15:53 -11. -101. 58. 1384. H 12 2020-11-29T15:47 -8. -93. 61. 1356. H 13 2020-11-29T15:34 -12. -95. 59. 1396. H 14 2020-11-29T15:31 -8. -89. 61. 1403. H 15 2020-11-29T15:35 -11. -97. 59. 1339. H 16 2020-11-29T15:39 -7. -88. 63. 1279. H 17 2020-11-29T16:03 -9. -85. 59. 1196. H 18 2020-11-29T15:53 -8. -83. 51. 1396. H 19 2020-11-29T15:45 -4. -79. 54. 1232. H 20 2020-11-29T16:09 -6. -90. 61. 1172. H 21 2020-11-29T15:48 -6. -80. 61. 1282. H 22 2020-11-29T15:59 -10. -78. 55. 1288. H 23 2020-11-29T16:00 -6. -75. 58. 1336. H 24 2020-11-29T15:43 -8. -103. 56. 1391. H 25 2020-11-29T15:43 -8. -105. 57. 1256. H 26 2020-11-29T15:43 -7. -96. 57. 1388. H 27 2020-11-29T15:32 -8. -88. 57. 1352. H 28 2020-11-29T15:58 -7. -96. 54. 1132. H 29 2020-11-29T15:38 -7. -92. 56. 1374. H 30 2020-11-29T15:36 -7. -99. 63. 1221. H 31 2020-11-29T15:30 -9. -98. 58. 1356. H 32 2020-11-29T15:31 -9. -95. 57. 1323. H 33 2020-11-29T15:21 -7. -97. 56. 1486. H 34 2020-11-29T15:23 -7. -93. 55. 1467. H 35 2020-11-29T15:22 -7. -95. 55. 1442. H 36 2020-11-29T15:28 -9. -101. 58. 1449. H 37 2020-11-29T15:29 -9. -101. 59. 1451. H 38 2020-11-29T15:31 -8. -103. 53. 1456. H 39 2020-11-29T15:53 -9. -105. 62. 1234. H 40 2020-11-29T15:52 -4. -106. 54. 1226. H 41 2020-11-29T15:48 -5. -105. 60. 1207. H 42 2020-11-29T15:40 -13. -108. 54. 1308. H 43 2020-11-29T15:54 -12. -107. 56. 1289. H 44 2020-11-29T15:55 -10. -106. 57. 1307. H 45 2020-11-29T16:10 -3. -101. 62. 1126. H 46 2020-11-29T15:52 -4. -99. 59. 1259. H 47 2020-11-29T15:48 -2. -98. 58. 1206. H 48 2020-11-29T15:40 -8. -96. 59. 1300. H 49 2020-11-29T15:43 -8. -99. 58. 1347. M Venus: Number_of_hits_Venus= 0 Number_of_miss_Venus=48 Percentage_hits_Venus= 0% No CME simulation in this ensemble hit Venus or the impact is weak https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2020-11-30_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX072/20201129_132500_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX072_Venus_stack.gif