Detailed_results_20250904_203000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA085.txt Fri Sep 5 21:57:35 UTC 2025 >> file 2025-09-04_1_CMEs_Control_File_Saved_2025-09-05T1715Z.txt exists and has 33 lines, 33 datalines >> There are 25 data_rows and 1 cmes/m_groups >> Using CR2302, Lon 346, and Startdate 2025-09-05 >> iswatag is 20250904_203000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA085 (1. 1st CME ID in control file) >> CME Spacecraft Start Image Date Start Image Type End Image Date End Image Type >> 2025-09-04T20:30:00-CME-001 (1) SOHO 2025-09-04T20:06:00Z C3 2025-09-04T21:06:00Z C3 >> Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest. Description of links: The first two links show the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median ensemble member, the third link is a histogram of predicted arrival times, and the last link is a stack plot showing the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled velocity, magnetic field, density, and temperature. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided. =================================Earth=================================== Earth (summary, more details follow below): Number_of_hits_Earth=24 Number_of_miss_Earth= 0 Percentage_hits_Earth=100.00% Earliest 2025-09-06T15:53 Average 2025-09-06T22:54 Latest 2025-09-07T06:43 Kp_90_min,Kp_90_avg,Kp_90_max = 5 5 7 Kp_135_min,Kp_135_avg,Kp_135_max= 7 7 8 Kp_180_min,Kp_180_avg,Kp_180_max= 7 8 9 Kp_all_min,Kp_all_avg,Kp_all_max= 5 7 9 Kp_all_weighted min, avg, max = 5 5 9 Sigma Kp_90,Kp_135,Kp_180,Kp_all= 0.55 0.46 0.51 1.04 ====Kp90,135,180 probability of occurrence histogram (%) 0 0 0 0 17 71 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 29 71 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 75 13 ====Kp all clock angles (equal weights) 0 0 0 0 6 24 18 49 4 ====Kp all clock angles (unequal weights 1 2 1) 0 0 0 0 4 18 21 54 3 Kp bins 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 ========================================================================================== ....................................... FLOATING POINT ................................... Kp_90fp_min,Kp_90fp_avg,Kp_90fp_max = 4.9 6.0 7.0 Kp_135fp_min,Kp_135fp_avg,Kp_135fp_max= 6.6 7.6 8.5 Kp_180fp_min,Kp_180fp_avg,Kp_180fp_max= 7.1 8.1 8.8 Kp_allfp_min,Kp_allfp_avg,Kp_allfp_max= 4.9 7.2 8.8 Kp_allfp_weighted min, avg, max = 4.9 5.9 8.8 Sigma Kp_90,Kp_135,Kp_180,Kp_all fp = 0.51 0.46 0.42 1.01 ====kp90,135,180 FP probability of occurrence histogram (%) 0 0 0 4 46 46 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 67 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 33 67 0 ====Kp FP all clock angles (equal weights) 0 0 0 1 15 19 35 29 0 ====Kp FP all clock angles (unequal weights 1 2 1) 0 0 0 1 11 18 43 27 0 Kp bins 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 ========================================================================================== Duration_min= 15.9 h Duration_avg= 16.3 h Duration_max= 17.0 h Standard deviation= 0.3 h mp_standoff_min= 5.3 Re mp_standoff_avg= 5.6 Re mp_standoff_max= 5.9 Re Standard deviation= 0.1 Re Earth results for median input parameters: Arrival time maxKp(90,135,180) Rmin(Re) Duration (hrs) 2025-09-06T22:14 6 8 8 5.5 16.3 https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-09-05_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA085/20250904_203000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA085_anim_tim-den.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-09-05_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA085/20250904_203000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA085_anim_tim-vel.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-09-05_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA085/20250904_203000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA085_Earth_stack.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-09-05_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA085/20250904_203000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA085_arrival_Earth.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-09-05_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA085/20250904_203000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA085_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif ===========================other locations=============================== Spitzer: Number_of_hits_Spitz= 0 Number_of_miss_Spitz=24 Percentage_hits_Spitz= 0% No CME simulation in this ensemble hit Spitzer or the impact is weak https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-09-05_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA085/20250904_203000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA085_Spitz_stack.gif STEREO A: Number_of_hits_STA= 0 Number_of_miss_STA=24 Percentage_hits_STA= 0% No CME simulation in this ensemble hit STEREO A or the impact is weak https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-09-05_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA085/20250904_203000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA085_STA_stack.gif STEREO B: Number_of_hits_STB= 0 Number_of_miss_STB=24 Percentage_hits_STB= 0% No CME simulation in this ensemble hit STEREO B or the impact is weak https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-09-05_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA085/20250904_203000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA085_STB_stack.gif Mars: Number_of_hits_Mars= 0 Number_of_miss_Mars=24 Percentage_hits_Mars= 0% No CME simulation in this ensemble hit Mars or the impact is weak https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-09-05_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA085/20250904_203000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA085_Mars_stack.gif ======================================= ### Notification information (missions near Earth) .... Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office, it is estimated that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Out of 24 ensemble members (see notes section), 24 (100%) indicate impact at NASA missions near Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2025-09-06T15:53Z and 2025-09-07T06:43Z (average arrival 2025-09-06T22:54Z). The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 97% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 5-8 range (minor to severe). Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-09-05_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA085/20250904_203000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA085_anim_tim-den.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-09-05_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA085/20250904_203000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA085_arrival_Earth.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-09-05_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA085/20250904_203000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA085_Earth_stack.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-09-05_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA085/20250904_203000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA085_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif ## Notes: Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest. Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided. For the full details of the modeled event, please go here: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-09-05_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA085/Detailed_results_20250904_203000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA085.txt ### ========================================================================= Earth table (NCMES=1) # time (21.5Rs) Lat Lon w/2 v flag Arrival time maxKp(90,135,180) FP Rmin(Re) Duration (hrs) 1 2025-09-04T23:04 2. -19. 41. 1021. H 2025-09-06T18:43 6 8 8 6.48 8.09 8.47 5.5 16.4 2 2025-09-04T23:47 3. -9. 45. 781. H 2025-09-07T01:58 6 7 8 5.70 7.41 7.87 5.6 16.3 3 2025-09-04T22:45 -2. -9. 41. 958. H 2025-09-06T19:25 6 8 8 6.47 8.08 8.46 5.5 16.7 4 2025-09-04T23:20 -1. -7. 44. 844. H 2025-09-06T23:19 6 8 8 6.03 7.70 8.13 5.5 16.3 5 2025-09-05T00:12 1. -20. 44. 732. H 2025-09-07T04:58 5 7 7 5.09 6.80 7.29 5.9 16.2 6 2025-09-04T23:23 -3. -19. 41. 917. H 2025-09-06T22:07 6 8 8 5.84 7.54 7.98 5.7 15.9 7 2025-09-04T23:06 4. -16. 41. 954. H 2025-09-06T20:10 6 8 8 6.29 7.93 8.33 5.5 16.3 8 2025-09-04T23:20 1. -16. 40. 917. H 2025-09-06T21:46 6 8 8 5.95 7.63 8.07 5.6 16.1 9 2025-09-04T22:48 1. -14. 40. 1110. H 2025-09-06T15:53 7 8 9 7.02 8.49 8.80 5.3 17.0 10 2025-09-04T23:35 1. -14. 44. 898. H 2025-09-06T22:00 6 8 8 6.24 7.89 8.30 5.5 16.3 11 2025-09-04T23:08 2. -21. 42. 999. H 2025-09-06T19:26 6 8 8 6.33 7.96 8.36 5.5 16.2 12 2025-09-04T23:45 2. -13. 42. 816. H 2025-09-07T01:00 6 7 8 5.67 7.37 7.83 5.7 16.3 13 2025-09-04T23:46 -1. -16. 44. 869. H 2025-09-06T23:20 6 8 8 5.98 7.66 8.09 5.5 16.1 14 2025-09-05T00:27 -1. -16. 44. 690. H 2025-09-07T06:43 5 7 7 4.93 6.63 7.14 5.9 16.4 15 2025-09-05T00:27 2. -15. 45. 704. H 2025-09-07T05:57 5 7 7 5.12 6.83 7.33 5.8 16.4 16 2025-09-04T23:35 1. -12. 43. 888. H 2025-09-06T22:19 6 8 8 6.18 7.84 8.25 5.5 16.4 17 2025-09-04T23:46 -1. -14. 43. 852. H 2025-09-06T23:50 6 8 8 5.89 7.58 8.02 5.6 16.2 18 2025-09-04T23:10 -1. -14. 40. 1014. H 2025-09-06T18:44 7 8 9 6.54 8.13 8.51 5.5 16.7 19 2025-09-04T23:41 5. -12. 44. 798. H 2025-09-07T01:22 6 7 8 5.71 7.41 7.87 5.6 16.2 20 2025-09-05T00:10 -4. -15. 43. 780. H 2025-09-07T02:59 5 7 8 5.38 7.09 7.57 5.8 16.2 21 2025-09-04T23:31 -2. -15. 43. 939. H 2025-09-06T20:57 6 8 8 6.31 7.95 8.35 5.5 16.3 22 2025-09-04T23:38 1. -14. 43. 872. H 2025-09-06T22:59 6 8 8 6.02 7.70 8.13 5.5 16.3 23 2025-09-04T23:15 3. -18. 41. 916. H 2025-09-06T21:42 6 8 8 5.98 7.66 8.09 5.6 16.1 24 2025-09-04T23:27 1. -10. 43. 945. H 2025-09-06T20:21 7 8 9 6.55 8.14 8.51 5.4 16.8 25 2025-09-04T23:33 1. -14. 43. 893. M 2025-09-06T22:14 6 8 8 6.55 8.14 8.51 5.5 16.3 ========== Spitzer table (NCMES=1) # time (21.5Rs) Lat Lon w/2 v flag Arrival time 1 2025-09-04T23:04 2. -19. 41. 1021. H 2 2025-09-04T23:47 3. -9. 45. 781. H 3 2025-09-04T22:45 -2. -9. 41. 958. H 4 2025-09-04T23:20 -1. -7. 44. 844. H 5 2025-09-05T00:12 1. -20. 44. 732. H 6 2025-09-04T23:23 -3. -19. 41. 917. H 7 2025-09-04T23:06 4. -16. 41. 954. H 8 2025-09-04T23:20 1. -16. 40. 917. H 9 2025-09-04T22:48 1. -14. 40. 1110. H 10 2025-09-04T23:35 1. -14. 44. 898. H 11 2025-09-04T23:08 2. -21. 42. 999. H 12 2025-09-04T23:45 2. -13. 42. 816. H 13 2025-09-04T23:46 -1. -16. 44. 869. H 14 2025-09-05T00:27 -1. -16. 44. 690. H 15 2025-09-05T00:27 2. -15. 45. 704. H 16 2025-09-04T23:35 1. -12. 43. 888. H 17 2025-09-04T23:46 -1. -14. 43. 852. H 18 2025-09-04T23:10 -1. -14. 40. 1014. H 19 2025-09-04T23:41 5. -12. 44. 798. H 20 2025-09-05T00:10 -4. -15. 43. 780. H 21 2025-09-04T23:31 -2. -15. 43. 939. H 22 2025-09-04T23:38 1. -14. 43. 872. H 23 2025-09-04T23:15 3. -18. 41. 916. H 24 2025-09-04T23:27 1. -10. 43. 945. H 25 2025-09-04T23:33 1. -14. 43. 893. M ========== STEREO A table (NCMES=1) # time (21.5Rs) Lat Lon w/2 v flag Arrival time 1 2025-09-04T23:04 2. -19. 41. 1021. H 2 2025-09-04T23:47 3. -9. 45. 781. H 3 2025-09-04T22:45 -2. -9. 41. 958. H 4 2025-09-04T23:20 -1. -7. 44. 844. H 5 2025-09-05T00:12 1. -20. 44. 732. H 6 2025-09-04T23:23 -3. -19. 41. 917. H 7 2025-09-04T23:06 4. -16. 41. 954. H 8 2025-09-04T23:20 1. -16. 40. 917. H 9 2025-09-04T22:48 1. -14. 40. 1110. H 10 2025-09-04T23:35 1. -14. 44. 898. H 11 2025-09-04T23:08 2. -21. 42. 999. H 12 2025-09-04T23:45 2. -13. 42. 816. H 13 2025-09-04T23:46 -1. -16. 44. 869. H 14 2025-09-05T00:27 -1. -16. 44. 690. H 15 2025-09-05T00:27 2. -15. 45. 704. H 16 2025-09-04T23:35 1. -12. 43. 888. H 17 2025-09-04T23:46 -1. -14. 43. 852. H 18 2025-09-04T23:10 -1. -14. 40. 1014. H 19 2025-09-04T23:41 5. -12. 44. 798. H 20 2025-09-05T00:10 -4. -15. 43. 780. H 21 2025-09-04T23:31 -2. -15. 43. 939. H 22 2025-09-04T23:38 1. -14. 43. 872. H 23 2025-09-04T23:15 3. -18. 41. 916. H 24 2025-09-04T23:27 1. -10. 43. 945. H 25 2025-09-04T23:33 1. -14. 43. 893. M ========== STEREO B table (NCMES=1) # time (21.5Rs) Lat Lon w/2 v flag Arrival time 1 2025-09-04T23:04 2. -19. 41. 1021. H 2 2025-09-04T23:47 3. -9. 45. 781. H 3 2025-09-04T22:45 -2. -9. 41. 958. H 4 2025-09-04T23:20 -1. -7. 44. 844. H 5 2025-09-05T00:12 1. -20. 44. 732. H 6 2025-09-04T23:23 -3. -19. 41. 917. H 7 2025-09-04T23:06 4. -16. 41. 954. H 8 2025-09-04T23:20 1. -16. 40. 917. H 9 2025-09-04T22:48 1. -14. 40. 1110. H 10 2025-09-04T23:35 1. -14. 44. 898. H 11 2025-09-04T23:08 2. -21. 42. 999. H 12 2025-09-04T23:45 2. -13. 42. 816. H 13 2025-09-04T23:46 -1. -16. 44. 869. H 14 2025-09-05T00:27 -1. -16. 44. 690. H 15 2025-09-05T00:27 2. -15. 45. 704. H 16 2025-09-04T23:35 1. -12. 43. 888. H 17 2025-09-04T23:46 -1. -14. 43. 852. H 18 2025-09-04T23:10 -1. -14. 40. 1014. H 19 2025-09-04T23:41 5. -12. 44. 798. H 20 2025-09-05T00:10 -4. -15. 43. 780. H 21 2025-09-04T23:31 -2. -15. 43. 939. H 22 2025-09-04T23:38 1. -14. 43. 872. H 23 2025-09-04T23:15 3. -18. 41. 916. H 24 2025-09-04T23:27 1. -10. 43. 945. H 25 2025-09-04T23:33 1. -14. 43. 893. M ========== Mars table (NCMES=1) # time (21.5Rs) Lat Lon w/2 v flag Arrival time 1 2025-09-04T23:04 2. -19. 41. 1021. H 2 2025-09-04T23:47 3. -9. 45. 781. H 3 2025-09-04T22:45 -2. -9. 41. 958. H 4 2025-09-04T23:20 -1. -7. 44. 844. H 5 2025-09-05T00:12 1. -20. 44. 732. H 6 2025-09-04T23:23 -3. -19. 41. 917. H 7 2025-09-04T23:06 4. -16. 41. 954. H 8 2025-09-04T23:20 1. -16. 40. 917. H 9 2025-09-04T22:48 1. -14. 40. 1110. H 10 2025-09-04T23:35 1. -14. 44. 898. H 11 2025-09-04T23:08 2. -21. 42. 999. H 12 2025-09-04T23:45 2. -13. 42. 816. H 13 2025-09-04T23:46 -1. -16. 44. 869. H 14 2025-09-05T00:27 -1. -16. 44. 690. H 15 2025-09-05T00:27 2. -15. 45. 704. H 16 2025-09-04T23:35 1. -12. 43. 888. H 17 2025-09-04T23:46 -1. -14. 43. 852. H 18 2025-09-04T23:10 -1. -14. 40. 1014. H 19 2025-09-04T23:41 5. -12. 44. 798. H 20 2025-09-05T00:10 -4. -15. 43. 780. H 21 2025-09-04T23:31 -2. -15. 43. 939. H 22 2025-09-04T23:38 1. -14. 43. 872. H 23 2025-09-04T23:15 3. -18. 41. 916. H 24 2025-09-04T23:27 1. -10. 43. 945. H 25 2025-09-04T23:33 1. -14. 43. 893. M ========== MERCURY table (NCMES=1) # time (21.5Rs) Lat Lon w/2 v flag Arrival time 1 2025-09-04T23:04 2. -19. 41. 1021. H 2 2025-09-04T23:47 3. -9. 45. 781. H 3 2025-09-04T22:45 -2. -9. 41. 958. H 4 2025-09-04T23:20 -1. -7. 44. 844. H 5 2025-09-05T00:12 1. -20. 44. 732. H 6 2025-09-04T23:23 -3. -19. 41. 917. H 7 2025-09-04T23:06 4. -16. 41. 954. H 8 2025-09-04T23:20 1. -16. 40. 917. H 9 2025-09-04T22:48 1. -14. 40. 1110. H 10 2025-09-04T23:35 1. -14. 44. 898. H 11 2025-09-04T23:08 2. -21. 42. 999. H 12 2025-09-04T23:45 2. -13. 42. 816. H 13 2025-09-04T23:46 -1. -16. 44. 869. H 14 2025-09-05T00:27 -1. -16. 44. 690. H 15 2025-09-05T00:27 2. -15. 45. 704. H 16 2025-09-04T23:35 1. -12. 43. 888. H 17 2025-09-04T23:46 -1. -14. 43. 852. H 18 2025-09-04T23:10 -1. -14. 40. 1014. H 19 2025-09-04T23:41 5. -12. 44. 798. H 20 2025-09-05T00:10 -4. -15. 43. 780. H 21 2025-09-04T23:31 -2. -15. 43. 939. H 22 2025-09-04T23:38 1. -14. 43. 872. H 23 2025-09-04T23:15 3. -18. 41. 916. H 24 2025-09-04T23:27 1. -10. 43. 945. H 25 2025-09-04T23:33 1. -14. 43. 893. M MERCURY: Number_of_hits_Mess= 0 Number_of_miss_Mess=24 Percentage_hits_Mess= 0% No CME simulation in this ensemble hit MESSENGER or the impact is weak https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-09-05_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA085/20250904_203000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA085_Mess_stack.gif ========== Venus table (NCMES=1) # time (21.5Rs) Lat Lon w/2 v flag Arrival time 1 2025-09-04T23:04 2. -19. 41. 1021. H 2 2025-09-04T23:47 3. -9. 45. 781. H 3 2025-09-04T22:45 -2. -9. 41. 958. H 4 2025-09-04T23:20 -1. -7. 44. 844. H 5 2025-09-05T00:12 1. -20. 44. 732. H 6 2025-09-04T23:23 -3. -19. 41. 917. H 7 2025-09-04T23:06 4. -16. 41. 954. H 8 2025-09-04T23:20 1. -16. 40. 917. H 9 2025-09-04T22:48 1. -14. 40. 1110. H 10 2025-09-04T23:35 1. -14. 44. 898. H 11 2025-09-04T23:08 2. -21. 42. 999. H 12 2025-09-04T23:45 2. -13. 42. 816. H 13 2025-09-04T23:46 -1. -16. 44. 869. H 14 2025-09-05T00:27 -1. -16. 44. 690. H 15 2025-09-05T00:27 2. -15. 45. 704. H 16 2025-09-04T23:35 1. -12. 43. 888. H 17 2025-09-04T23:46 -1. -14. 43. 852. H 18 2025-09-04T23:10 -1. -14. 40. 1014. H 19 2025-09-04T23:41 5. -12. 44. 798. H 20 2025-09-05T00:10 -4. -15. 43. 780. H 21 2025-09-04T23:31 -2. -15. 43. 939. H 22 2025-09-04T23:38 1. -14. 43. 872. H 23 2025-09-04T23:15 3. -18. 41. 916. H 24 2025-09-04T23:27 1. -10. 43. 945. H 25 2025-09-04T23:33 1. -14. 43. 893. M Venus: Number_of_hits_Venus= 0 Number_of_miss_Venus=24 Percentage_hits_Venus= 0% No CME simulation in this ensemble hit Venus or the impact is weak https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-09-05_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA085/20250904_203000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA085_Venus_stack.gif