2014/01/20 11:11 # AR# WL!DSG!N Lng Lat 24 Hour Event Rate Dist (kG) (deg) M&X CME FCME X SPE (deg) 2 11952 4 35 -32 0.003 0.005 0.002 0.000 0.001 47! 6 11955 1 -16 -14 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 21 9 11957 5 -14 12 0.005 0.008 0.004 0.001 0.001 18 4 11958+ 32 -43 -8 0.200 0.100 0.060 0.030 0.030 43! Disk Forecast Rates 0.200 0.200 0.080 0.030 0.030 Multiplicative Uncertainties 2.7x 2.1x 2.2x 2.8x 2.3x Disk All-Clear Forecast Probabilities 80.00% 80.00% 92.00% 97.00% 97.00% Uncertainties 20.00% 10.00% 6.00% 3.00% 3.00%