2014/03/06 12:47 # AR# WL!DSG!N Lng Lat 24 Hour Event Rate Dist (kG) (deg) M&X CME FCME X SPE (deg) 2 11990+ 15 48 -12 0.040 0.040 0.020 0.006 0.007 49! 1 11991 4 32 -24 0.004 0.007 0.003 0.001 0.001 40! 9 11993 5 43 16 0.005 0.008 0.003 0.001 0.001 45! 8 11996 10 -7 14 0.020 0.020 0.010 0.003 0.004 15 4 11998 10 -57 -10 0.020 0.020 0.010 0.003 0.004 57! 5 11999 2 -14 -17 0.001 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 22 Disk Forecast Rates 0.090 0.100 0.050 0.010 0.020 Multiplicative Uncertainties 2.7x 2.2x 2.3x 3.3x 2.8x Disk All-Clear Forecast Probabilities 92.00% 90.00% 95.00% 99.00% 98.00% Uncertainties 8.00% 7.00% 4.00% 2.00% 2.00%