2014/08/23 02:59 # AR# WL!DSG!N Lng Lat 24 Hour Event Rate Dist (kG) (deg) M&X CME FCME X SPE (deg) 7 12141 4 50 16 0.003 0.005 0.002 0.000 0.001 52! 3 12143 13 54 -5 0.030 0.030 0.010 0.005 0.006 54! 5 12146 8 8 10 0.010 0.010 0.007 0.002 0.003 12 4 12148 2 -12 6 0.001 0.003 0.001 0.000 0.000 13 6 12149 15 -61 12 0.040 0.040 0.020 0.006 0.008 62! Disk Forecast Rates 0.080 0.100 0.040 0.010 0.020 Multiplicative Uncertainties 2.7x 2.2x 2.3x 3.3x 2.7x Disk All-Clear Forecast Probabilities 92.00% 91.00% 96.00% 99.00% 98.00% Uncertainties 8.00% 7.00% 4.00% 2.00% 2.00%