2014/09/01 11:59 # AR# WL!DSG!N Lng Lat 24 Hour Event Rate Dist (kG) (deg) M&X CME FCME X SPE (deg) 7 12149 19 69 9 0.060 0.060 0.030 0.010 0.010 69! 3 12150 5 52 -14 0.006 0.009 0.004 0.001 0.002 53! 5 12151 5 40 -7 0.005 0.009 0.004 0.001 0.002 40! 2 12152 17 -8 -16 0.060 0.050 0.020 0.009 0.010 17 4 12153 2 18 -11 0.001 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 21 Disk Forecast Rates 0.100 0.100 0.060 0.020 0.020 Multiplicative Uncertainties 2.7x 2.2x 2.3x 3.1x 2.6x Disk All-Clear Forecast Probabilities 90.00% 90.00% 94.00% 98.00% 98.00% Uncertainties 10.00% 9.00% 5.00% 2.00% 2.00%