2014/09/06 11:59 # AR# WL!DSG!N Lng Lat 24 Hour Event Rate Dist (kG) (deg) M&X CME FCME X SPE (deg) 4 12152 14 57 -15 0.040 0.040 0.020 0.006 0.007 58! 2 12154 1 11 -18 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 21 1 12155+ 36 -40 -20 0.200 0.200 0.080 0.040 0.030 44! 6 12158 16 -61 15 0.050 0.040 0.020 0.007 0.008 62! Disk Forecast Rates 0.300 0.200 0.100 0.050 0.050 Multiplicative Uncertainties 2.7x 2.1x 2.2x 2.8x 2.3x Disk All-Clear Forecast Probabilities 70.00% 80.00% 90.00% 95.00% 95.00% Uncertainties 20.00% 10.00% 8.00% 5.00% 4.00%