2014/12/02 09:59 # AR# WL!DSG!N Lng Lat 24 Hour Event Rate Dist (kG) (deg) M&X CME FCME X SPE (deg) 2 12217+ 22 43 -17 0.080 0.070 0.030 0.010 0.010 46! 5 12218 6 27 16 0.006 0.010 0.004 0.001 0.002 31! 4 12221 1 0 3 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 3 1 12222 29 2 -21 0.200 0.100 0.050 0.020 0.020 21 3 12225 1 -37 -17 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 40! Disk Forecast Rates 0.200 0.200 0.090 0.040 0.040 Multiplicative Uncertainties 2.7x 2.1x 2.2x 2.9x 2.3x Disk All-Clear Forecast Probabilities 80.00% 80.00% 91.00% 96.00% 96.00% Uncertainties 20.00% 10.00% 7.00% 4.00% 3.00%