2014/12/09 09:59 # AR# WL!DSG!N Lng Lat 24 Hour Event Rate Dist (kG) (deg) M&X CME FCME X SPE (deg) 3 12227 4 12 -4 0.003 0.005 0.002 0.000 0.001 12 1 12230 19 -30 -15 0.070 0.060 0.030 0.010 0.010 33! 4 12231 1 6 -5 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 7 5 12232 16 -54 11 0.050 0.050 0.020 0.007 0.009 55! Disk Forecast Rates 0.100 0.100 0.050 0.020 0.020 Multiplicative Uncertainties 2.7x 2.2x 2.3x 3.1x 2.5x Disk All-Clear Forecast Probabilities 90.00% 90.00% 95.00% 98.00% 98.00% Uncertainties 10.00% 8.00% 4.00% 2.00% 2.00%